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Lubbock, TX · ZIP 79413 · Census Tract 48303002104 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$187K
Downside (P10)
$147K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$196K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$284K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $143K | $156K | $164K | $177K | $186K | $187K | $190K | $194K | $196K |
| YoY Change | +8.8% | +5.5% | +8.0% | +4.9% | +0.7% | +1.8% | +1.7% | +1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $153K | $147K | $147K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $239K | $262K | $284K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$153K to $239K
44.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$147K to $284K
69.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubbock · 79413 · (Tract 21.4) | $187K | $196K | +4.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010505) | $188K | $213K | +13.1% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001906) | $184K | $204K | +11.3% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000607) | $184K | $202K | +9.6% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002203) | $184K | $197K | +7.0% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000411) | $189K | $201K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubbock · 79413 · (Tract 21.4) | $187K | $196K | +4.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001808) | $174K | $216K | +23.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002500) | $117K | $138K | +17.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000402) | $199K | $230K | +15.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010423) | $316K | $366K | +15.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001000) | $57K | $66K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubbock · 79413 · (Tract 21.4) | $187K | $196K | $137K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000304) | $84K | $95K | $42K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001200) | $74K | $84K | $41K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001000) | $57K | $66K | $38K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002401) | $77K | $86K | $38K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010204) | $60K | $67K | $31K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.