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Jefferson, TX · ZIP 77640 · Census Tract 48245006900 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$186K
Downside (P10)
$154K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$191K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$241K
+30% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +30%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $82K | $82K | $87K | $97K | $99K | $136K | $188K | $185K | $180K | $179K | $186K | $189K | $192K | $191K | $186K |
| YoY Change | +0.1% | +5.9% | +11.3% | +2.3% | +37.2% | +37.6% | -1.5% | -2.6% | -0.6% | +3.8% | +1.6% | +1.8% | -0.7% | -2.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $152K | $160K | $154K | $165K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $226K | $233K | $241K | $210K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$152K to $226K
39.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$165K to $210K
24.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur | $182K | $191K | +4.8% | |
| Port Arthur | $182K | $199K | +9.7% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 000309) | $192K | $209K | +9.0% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 011700) | $182K | $198K | +8.7% | |
| Nederland (Tract 011001) | $187K | $200K | +6.9% | |
| Nederland (Tract 011002) | $193K | $198K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur | $182K | $191K | +4.8% | |
| Beaumont | $133K | $155K | +16.4% | |
| Nome-China | $212K | $245K | +15.9% | |
| Sabine Pass | $201K | $233K | +15.8% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011800) | $86K | $99K | +15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur | $182K | $191K | $87K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006700) | $73K | $78K | $41K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006500) | $65K | $68K | $41K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002000) | $79K | $85K | $39K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002400) | $85K | $89K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.