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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Jefferson, TX · ZIP 77627 · Census Tract 48245011204 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$327K
Downside (P10)
$284K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$357K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$423K
+30% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +30%. The model forecasts this with 79% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $246K | $246K | $293K | $304K | $316K | $327K | $330K | $346K | $357K |
| YoY Change | +0.0% | +19.2% | +3.6% | +4.1% | +3.4% | +1.1% | +4.7% | +3.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $287K | $289K | $284K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $371K | $405K | $423K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$287K to $371K
25.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$284K to $423K
39.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur · Nederland · (Tract 112.4) | $323K | $357K | +10.6% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 000314) | $322K | $367K | +13.9% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 000312) | $318K | $359K | +12.8% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 001303) | $280K | $301K | +7.3% | |
| Port Arthur | $297K | $306K | +3.0% | |
| LaBelle | $298K | $306K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur · Nederland · (Tract 112.4) | $323K | $357K | +10.6% | |
| Beaumont | $133K | $155K | +16.4% | |
| Nome-China | $212K | $245K | +15.9% | |
| Sabine Pass | $201K | $233K | +15.8% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011800) | $86K | $99K | +15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur · Nederland · (Tract 112.4) | $323K | $357K | $140K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006700) | $73K | $78K | $41K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006500) | $65K | $68K | $41K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002000) | $79K | $85K | $39K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002400) | $85K | $89K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.