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Jefferson, TX · ZIP 77642 · Census Tract 48245010200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$107K
Downside (P10)
$84K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$112K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$150K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $90K | $78K | $75K | $76K | $82K | $106K | $117K | $111K | $115K | $105K | $107K | $106K | $112K | $112K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$16,547 | -$28,347 | -$31,247 | -$30,747 | -$24,947 | -$847 | +$10,253 | +$3,853 | +$8,353 | -$1,847 | -$318 | +$5,420 | +$5,260 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -15.5% | -26.6% | -29.3% | -28.8% | -23.4% | -0.8% | +9.6% | +3.6% | +7.8% | -1.7% | -0.3% | +5.1% | +4.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $94K | $91K | $84K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $131K | $144K | $150K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$94K to $131K
34.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$84K to $150K
58.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur · 77642 · (Tract 102) | $107K | $112K | +4.9% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 010100) | $100K | $110K | +10.1% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002200) | $102K | $109K | +7.2% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 000103) | $114K | $119K | +4.3% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 005900) | $98K | $99K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur · 77642 · (Tract 102) | $107K | $112K | +4.9% | |
| Beaumont | $133K | $155K | +16.4% | |
| Nome-China | $212K | $245K | +15.9% | |
| Sabine Pass | $201K | $233K | +15.8% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011800) | $86K | $99K | +15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur · 77642 · (Tract 102) | $107K | $112K | $66K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006700) | $73K | $78K | $41K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006500) | $65K | $68K | $41K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002000) | $79K | $85K | $39K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002400) | $85K | $89K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, TX · ZIP 77642 · Census Tract 48245010200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$107K
Downside (P10)
$84K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$112K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$150K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $90K | $78K | $75K | $76K | $82K | $106K | $117K | $111K | $115K | $105K | $107K | $106K | $112K | $112K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$16,547 | -$28,347 | -$31,247 | -$30,747 | -$24,947 | -$847 | +$10,253 | +$3,853 | +$8,353 | -$1,847 | -$318 | +$5,420 | +$5,260 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -15.5% | -26.6% | -29.3% | -28.8% | -23.4% | -0.8% | +9.6% | +3.6% | +7.8% | -1.7% | -0.3% | +5.1% | +4.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $94K | $91K | $84K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $131K | $144K | $150K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$94K to $131K
34.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$84K to $150K
58.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur · 77642 · (Tract 102) | $107K | $112K | +4.9% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 010100) | $100K | $110K | +10.1% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002200) | $102K | $109K | +7.2% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 000103) | $114K | $119K | +4.3% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 005900) | $98K | $99K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur · 77642 · (Tract 102) | $107K | $112K | +4.9% | |
| Beaumont | $133K | $155K | +16.4% | |
| Nome-China | $212K | $245K | +15.9% | |
| Sabine Pass | $201K | $233K | +15.8% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011800) | $86K | $99K | +15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Arthur · 77642 · (Tract 102) | $107K | $112K | $66K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006700) | $73K | $78K | $41K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006500) | $65K | $68K | $41K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002000) | $79K | $85K | $39K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002400) | $85K | $89K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
