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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Hays, TX · ZIP 78666 · Census Tract 48209010702 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$454K
Downside (P10)
$339K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$469K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$654K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $131K | $146K | $177K | $165K | $211K | $216K | $244K | $301K | $383K | $444K | $454K | $447K | $462K | $469K | $464K |
| YoY Change | +11.9% | +21.1% | -6.9% | +27.7% | +2.4% | +13.3% | +23.4% | +27.0% | +16.0% | +2.3% | -1.6% | +3.4% | +1.6% | -1.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $377K | $358K | $339K | $408K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $541K | $627K | $654K | $528K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$377K to $541K
36.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$408K to $528K
25.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos | $454K | $469K | +3.4% | |
| San Marcos | $441K | $530K | +20.1% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010913) | $456K | $541K | +18.6% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010911) | $496K | $554K | +11.7% | |
| Dripping Springs-Wimberley (Tract 010813) | $415K | $452K | +8.9% | |
| Dripping Springs-Wimberley (Tract 010814) | $417K | $452K | +8.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos | $454K | $469K | +3.4% | |
| San Marcos | $441K | $530K | +20.1% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010922) | $336K | $402K | +19.9% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010913) | $456K | $541K | +18.6% | |
| Dripping Springs-Wimberley | $537K | $622K | +15.7% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010923) | $382K | $435K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos | $454K | $469K | $315K | |
| Kyle-Buda | $187K | $198K | $150K | |
| San Marcos (Tract 010306) | $225K | $250K | $125K | |
| San Marcos (Tract 010302) | $171K | $180K | $104K | |
| San Marcos (Tract 010401) | $157K | $176K | $95K | |
| San Marcos (Tract 010307) | $140K | $146K | $81K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.