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Hays, TX · ZIP 78666 · Census Tract 48209010603 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$407K
Downside (P10)
$349K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$440K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$525K
+29% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +29%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $204K | $251K | $324K | $339K | $393K | $407K | $421K | $441K | $440K |
| YoY Change | +23.0% | +28.9% | +4.6% | +16.1% | +3.7% | +3.4% | +4.7% | -0.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $341K | $359K | $349K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $454K | $502K | $525K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$341K to $454K
26.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$349K to $525K
40.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos | $398K | $440K | +10.6% | |
| San Marcos | $441K | $530K | +20.1% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010923) | $382K | $435K | +13.9% | |
| Dripping Springs-Wimberley (Tract 010813) | $415K | $452K | +8.9% | |
| Dripping Springs-Wimberley (Tract 010814) | $417K | $452K | +8.4% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010905) | $395K | $424K | +7.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos | $398K | $440K | +10.6% | |
| San Marcos | $441K | $530K | +20.1% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010922) | $336K | $402K | +19.9% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010913) | $456K | $541K | +18.6% | |
| Dripping Springs-Wimberley | $537K | $622K | +15.7% | |
| Kyle-Buda (Tract 010923) | $382K | $435K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos | $398K | $440K | $176K | |
| Kyle-Buda | $187K | $198K | $150K | |
| San Marcos (Tract 010306) | $225K | $250K | $125K | |
| San Marcos (Tract 010302) | $171K | $180K | $104K | |
| San Marcos (Tract 010401) | $157K | $176K | $95K | |
| San Marcos (Tract 010307) | $140K | $146K | $81K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.