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Grayson, TX · ZIP 75021 · Census Tract 48181000600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$189K
Downside (P10)
$159K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$190K
+0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$272K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $104K | $106K | $119K | $128K | $155K | $162K | $165K | $187K | $188K | $185K | $189K | $189K | $191K | $190K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$85,174 | -$83,674 | -$70,674 | -$61,174 | -$34,674 | -$27,574 | -$23,974 | -$2,074 | -$1,474 | -$4,074 | +$96 | +$1,484 | +$340 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -45.0% | -44.2% | -37.3% | -32.3% | -18.3% | -14.6% | -12.7% | -1.1% | -0.8% | -2.2% | +0.1% | +0.8% | +0.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $159K | $162K | $159K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $228K | $264K | $272K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$159K to $228K
36.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$159K to $272K
59.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grayson | $188K | $190K | +1.1% | |
| Northwest Grayson | $222K | $248K | +11.5% | |
| Sherman (Tract 000903) | $210K | $233K | +11.0% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 000200) | $171K | $186K | +8.3% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 000501) | $197K | $213K | +8.1% | |
| Sherman (Tract 002000) | $202K | $218K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grayson | $188K | $190K | +1.1% | |
| Sherman | $282K | $332K | +17.6% | |
| Denison | $120K | $139K | +16.3% | |
| East Grayson | $271K | $307K | +13.3% | |
| Northwest Grayson (Tract 000304) | $251K | $282K | +12.3% | |
| Northwest Grayson (Tract 000306) | $222K | $248K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grayson | $188K | $190K | $112K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001500) | $151K | $159K | $92K | |
| Denison (Tract 000502) | $120K | $139K | $89K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 000400) | $144K | $154K | $87K | |
| Denison (Tract 000700) | $151K | $167K | $79K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001400) | $125K | $131K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Grayson, TX · ZIP 75021 · Census Tract 48181000600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$189K
Downside (P10)
$159K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$190K
+0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$272K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $104K | $106K | $119K | $128K | $155K | $162K | $165K | $187K | $188K | $185K | $189K | $189K | $191K | $190K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$85,174 | -$83,674 | -$70,674 | -$61,174 | -$34,674 | -$27,574 | -$23,974 | -$2,074 | -$1,474 | -$4,074 | +$96 | +$1,484 | +$340 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -45.0% | -44.2% | -37.3% | -32.3% | -18.3% | -14.6% | -12.7% | -1.1% | -0.8% | -2.2% | +0.1% | +0.8% | +0.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $159K | $162K | $159K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $228K | $264K | $272K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$159K to $228K
36.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$159K to $272K
59.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grayson | $188K | $190K | +1.1% | |
| Northwest Grayson | $222K | $248K | +11.5% | |
| Sherman (Tract 000903) | $210K | $233K | +11.0% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 000200) | $171K | $186K | +8.3% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 000501) | $197K | $213K | +8.1% | |
| Sherman (Tract 002000) | $202K | $218K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grayson | $188K | $190K | +1.1% | |
| Sherman | $282K | $332K | +17.6% | |
| Denison | $120K | $139K | +16.3% | |
| East Grayson | $271K | $307K | +13.3% | |
| Northwest Grayson (Tract 000304) | $251K | $282K | +12.3% | |
| Northwest Grayson (Tract 000306) | $222K | $248K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grayson | $188K | $190K | $112K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001500) | $151K | $159K | $92K | |
| Denison (Tract 000502) | $120K | $139K | $89K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 000400) | $144K | $154K | $87K | |
| Denison (Tract 000700) | $151K | $167K | $79K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001400) | $125K | $131K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
