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Erath, TX · ZIP 76401 · Census Tract 48143950203 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$308K
Downside (P10)
$255K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$332K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$449K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $181K | $187K | $266K | $292K | $310K | $308K | $319K | $323K | $332K | $327K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$127,289 | -$120,389 | -$41,489 | -$15,489 | +$1,711 | +$11,376 | +$15,179 | +$24,190 | +$19,021 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.4% | -39.1% | -13.5% | -5.0% | +0.6% | +3.7% | +4.9% | +7.9% | +6.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $260K | $252K | $255K | $286K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $384K | $407K | $449K | $371K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$260K to $384K
38.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$286K to $371K
26.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephenville · 76401 · (Tract 9502.3) | $310K | $332K | +7.0% | |
| Morgan Mill-Bluff Dale | $360K | $402K | +11.7% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950402) | $261K | $289K | +10.9% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950201) | $376K | $398K | +5.6% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950204) | $275K | $290K | +5.6% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950501) | $271K | $284K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephenville · 76401 · (Tract 9502.3) | $310K | $332K | +7.0% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950600) | $229K | $262K | +14.3% | |
| Morgan Mill-Bluff Dale | $360K | $402K | +11.7% | |
| Dublin (Tract 950301) | $192K | $213K | +11.3% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950402) | $261K | $289K | +10.9% | |
| Dublin (Tract 950302) | $162K | $179K | +10.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephenville · 76401 · (Tract 9502.3) | $310K | $332K | $194K | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950204) | $275K | $290K | $142K | |
| Dublin (Tract 950301) | $192K | $213K | $135K | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950600) | $229K | $262K | $131K | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950502) | $197K | $198K | $108K | |
| Dublin (Tract 950302) | $162K | $179K | $87K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Erath, TX · ZIP 76401 · Census Tract 48143950203 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$308K
Downside (P10)
$255K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$332K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$449K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $181K | $187K | $266K | $292K | $310K | $308K | $319K | $323K | $332K | $327K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$127,289 | -$120,389 | -$41,489 | -$15,489 | +$1,711 | +$11,376 | +$15,179 | +$24,190 | +$19,021 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.4% | -39.1% | -13.5% | -5.0% | +0.6% | +3.7% | +4.9% | +7.9% | +6.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $260K | $252K | $255K | $286K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $384K | $407K | $449K | $371K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$260K to $384K
38.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$286K to $371K
26.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephenville · 76401 · (Tract 9502.3) | $310K | $332K | +7.0% | |
| Morgan Mill-Bluff Dale | $360K | $402K | +11.7% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950402) | $261K | $289K | +10.9% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950201) | $376K | $398K | +5.6% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950204) | $275K | $290K | +5.6% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950501) | $271K | $284K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephenville · 76401 · (Tract 9502.3) | $310K | $332K | +7.0% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950600) | $229K | $262K | +14.3% | |
| Morgan Mill-Bluff Dale | $360K | $402K | +11.7% | |
| Dublin (Tract 950301) | $192K | $213K | +11.3% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950402) | $261K | $289K | +10.9% | |
| Dublin (Tract 950302) | $162K | $179K | +10.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephenville · 76401 · (Tract 9502.3) | $310K | $332K | $194K | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950204) | $275K | $290K | $142K | |
| Dublin (Tract 950301) | $192K | $213K | $135K | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950600) | $229K | $262K | $131K | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950502) | $197K | $198K | $108K | |
| Dublin (Tract 950302) | $162K | $179K | $87K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
