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Erath, TX · ZIP 76401 · Census Tract 48143950100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$376K
Downside (P10)
$313K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$402K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$510K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $210K | $218K | $225K | $249K | $284K | $274K | $311K | $315K | $339K | $354K | $376K | $384K | $395K | $402K |
| YoY Change | +3.5% | +3.3% | +10.9% | +14.2% | -3.7% | +13.6% | +1.1% | +7.7% | +4.4% | +6.3% | +2.2% | +3.0% | +1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $330K | $317K | $313K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $449K | $484K | $510K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$330K to $449K
31.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$313K to $510K
48.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Mill-Bluff Dale | $360K | $402K | +11.7% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950203) | $310K | $332K | +7.0% | |
| Duffau-Clairette | $381K | $407K | +6.8% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950201) | $376K | $398K | +5.6% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950204) | $275K | $290K | +5.6% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950501) | $271K | $284K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Mill-Bluff Dale | $360K | $402K | +11.7% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950600) | $229K | $262K | +14.3% | |
| Dublin (Tract 950301) | $192K | $213K | +11.3% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950402) | $261K | $289K | +10.9% | |
| Dublin (Tract 950302) | $162K | $179K | +10.2% | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950203) | $310K | $332K | +7.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Mill-Bluff Dale | $360K | $402K | $197K | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950204) | $275K | $290K | $142K | |
| Dublin (Tract 950301) | $192K | $213K | $135K | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950600) | $229K | $262K | $131K | |
| Stephenville (Tract 950502) | $197K | $198K | $108K | |
| Dublin (Tract 950302) | $162K | $179K | $87K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.