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El Paso, TX · ZIP 79902 · Census Tract 48141001501 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$283K
Downside (P10)
$220K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$314K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$443K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $207K | $207K | $207K | $216K | $231K | $234K | $250K | $300K | $305K | $278K | $283K | $301K | $308K | $314K |
| YoY Change | +0.0% | -0.2% | +4.4% | +6.8% | +1.5% | +6.8% | +20.0% | +1.7% | -8.9% | +1.9% | +6.4% | +2.3% | +1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $237K | $235K | $220K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $345K | $402K | $443K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$237K to $345K
36.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$220K to $443K
70.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso | $280K | $314K | +12.3% | |
| El Paso Northwest (Tract 010218) | $299K | $320K | +7.3% | |
| El Paso Northwest (Tract 010211) | $275K | $294K | +6.9% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010353) | $271K | $288K | +6.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010328) | $265K | $282K | +6.1% | |
| El Paso (Tract 001107) | $270K | $280K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso | $280K | $314K | +12.3% | |
| El Paso East | $241K | $286K | +18.6% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000113) | $138K | $164K | +18.1% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010354) | $212K | $250K | +18.0% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010349) | $164K | $192K | +17.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 003100) | $113K | $131K | +16.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso | $280K | $314K | $223K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010505) | $97K | $106K | $47K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010333) | $92K | $100K | $43K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010504) | $77K | $86K | $42K | |
| El Paso (Tract 001400) | $70K | $76K | $41K | |
| El Paso (Tract 002800) | $79K | $84K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.