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El Paso, TX · ZIP 79938 · Census Tract 48141010365 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$191K
Downside (P10)
$148K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$200K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$281K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $77K | $95K | $162K | $159K | $191K | $191K | $190K | $196K | $200K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$113,950 | -$95,550 | -$28,750 | -$31,950 | +$850 | -$792 | +$5,640 | +$9,932 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -59.8% | -50.1% | -15.1% | -16.8% | +0.4% | -0.4% | +3.0% | +5.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $160K | $161K | $148K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $228K | $253K | $281K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$160K to $228K
36.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$148K to $281K
66.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso (Tract 010312) | $190K | $213K | +12.5% | |
| El Paso (Tract 004318) | $193K | $210K | +8.6% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000114) | $194K | $201K | +3.7% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000111) | $187K | $194K | +3.4% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010307) | $192K | $195K | +1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso (Tract 000113) | $138K | $164K | +18.1% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010354) | $212K | $250K | +18.0% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010349) | $164K | $192K | +17.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 003100) | $113K | $131K | +16.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000112) | $126K | $145K | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso (Tract 002000) | $89K | $95K | $51K | |
| El Paso (Tract 003501) | $106K | $114K | $48K | |
| El Paso East | $92K | $100K | $43K | |
| El Paso (Tract 001400) | $70K | $76K | $41K | |
| El Paso (Tract 002800) | $79K | $84K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
El Paso, TX · ZIP 79938 · Census Tract 48141010365 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$191K
Downside (P10)
$148K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$200K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$281K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $77K | $95K | $162K | $159K | $191K | $191K | $190K | $196K | $200K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$113,950 | -$95,550 | -$28,750 | -$31,950 | +$850 | -$792 | +$5,640 | +$9,932 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -59.8% | -50.1% | -15.1% | -16.8% | +0.4% | -0.4% | +3.0% | +5.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $160K | $161K | $148K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $228K | $253K | $281K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$160K to $228K
36.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$148K to $281K
66.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso (Tract 010312) | $190K | $213K | +12.5% | |
| El Paso (Tract 004318) | $193K | $210K | +8.6% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000114) | $194K | $201K | +3.7% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000111) | $187K | $194K | +3.4% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010307) | $192K | $195K | +1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso (Tract 000113) | $138K | $164K | +18.1% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010354) | $212K | $250K | +18.0% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010349) | $164K | $192K | +17.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 003100) | $113K | $131K | +16.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000112) | $126K | $145K | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso (Tract 002000) | $89K | $95K | $51K | |
| El Paso (Tract 003501) | $106K | $114K | $48K | |
| El Paso East | $92K | $100K | $43K | |
| El Paso (Tract 001400) | $70K | $76K | $41K | |
| El Paso (Tract 002800) | $79K | $84K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
