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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
El Paso, TX · ZIP 79911 · Census Tract 48141010220 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$202K
Downside (P10)
$182K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$220K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$293K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $82K | $85K | $87K | $90K | $92K | $133K | $131K | $151K | $175K | $204K | $202K | $208K | $215K | $220K |
| YoY Change | +4.2% | +1.6% | +3.5% | +2.7% | +44.3% | -1.2% | +14.9% | +15.8% | +16.9% | -0.9% | +3.0% | +3.4% | +2.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $185K | $189K | $182K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $248K | $275K | $293K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$185K to $248K
30.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$182K to $293K
50.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso · 79911 · (Tract 102.20) | $203K | $220K | +8.0% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010212) | $206K | $224K | +8.9% | |
| El Paso East | $200K | $218K | +8.8% | |
| El Paso (Tract 004303) | $204K | $218K | +7.0% | |
| El Paso Northwest | $203K | $216K | +6.3% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010323) | $198K | $210K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso · 79911 · (Tract 102.20) | $203K | $220K | +8.0% | |
| El Paso East | $241K | $286K | +18.6% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000113) | $138K | $164K | +18.1% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010354) | $212K | $250K | +18.0% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010349) | $164K | $192K | +17.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 003100) | $113K | $131K | +16.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso · 79911 · (Tract 102.20) | $203K | $220K | $112K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010505) | $97K | $106K | $47K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010333) | $92K | $100K | $43K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010504) | $77K | $86K | $42K | |
| El Paso (Tract 001400) | $70K | $76K | $41K | |
| El Paso (Tract 002800) | $79K | $84K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.