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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Denton, TX · ZIP 75028 · Census Tract 48121021727 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$697K
Downside (P10)
$597K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$741K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$957K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $315K | $341K | $346K | $378K | $395K | $411K | $444K | $555K | $631K | $686K | $697K | $725K | $741K | $741K |
| YoY Change | +8.3% | +1.7% | +9.0% | +4.6% | +4.2% | +8.1% | +24.9% | +13.7% | +8.6% | +1.7% | +4.0% | +2.1% | +0.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $627K | $602K | $597K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $911K | $931K | $957K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$627K to $911K
39.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$597K to $957K
48.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flower Mound · 75028 · (Tract 217.27) | $694K | $741K | +6.8% | |
| Flower Mound | $679K | $784K | +15.5% | |
| Justin-Roanoke (Tract 020317) | $695K | $778K | +11.9% | |
| Carrollton (Tract 021652) | $700K | $761K | +8.8% | |
| Carrollton (Tract 021643) | $685K | $731K | +6.8% | |
| Justin-Roanoke (Tract 020305) | $683K | $699K | +2.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flower Mound · 75028 · (Tract 217.27) | $694K | $741K | +6.8% | |
| Denton | $240K | $295K | +23.2% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| The Colony | $734K | $876K | +19.3% | |
| Carrollton | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $345K | $405K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flower Mound · 75028 · (Tract 217.27) | $694K | $741K | $360K | |
| Denton (Tract 020605) | $240K | $295K | $138K | |
| Denton (Tract 020800) | $235K | $258K | $112K | |
| Denton (Tract 020603) | $220K | $234K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.