What is the home price forecast for Parcel 48121020604 in Denton · 76209 · (Tract 206.4)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $287,344 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 14.3%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 48121020604 in Denton · 76209 · (Tract 206.4)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $287,344 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 14.3%.

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Parcel 48121020604 (Denton) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 48121020604, Denton · 76209 · (Tract 206.4) Home Price Forecast

Denton, TX · ZIP 76209 · Census Tract 48121020604 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$287K

Downside (P10)

$254K

-12% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$329K

+14% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$455K

+58% by 2030

Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +58%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$189K	$191K	$223K	$233K	$282K	$287K	$296K	$312K	$329K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$98,244	-$96,044	-$64,344	-$54,344	-$5,844		+$8,470	+$24,890	+$41,199
Growth % vs 2026	-34.2%	-33.4%	-22.4%	-18.9%	-2.0%		+2.9%	+8.7%	+14.3%
Downside (P10)							$253K	$252K	$254K
Upside (P90)							$352K	$391K	$455K

Forecast Confidence

66%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$253K to $352K

33.6% of median

Long-horizon band

$254K to $455K

61.2% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +14.3% · Spread: 61%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.

Location

Parcel 48121020604, Denton · 76209 · (Tract 206.4) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).