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Denton, TX · ZIP 75010 · Census Tract 48121021649 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$461K
Downside (P10)
$405K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$516K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$681K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $358K | $365K | $413K | $434K | $449K | $461K | $479K | $496K | $516K |
| YoY Change | +1.8% | +13.3% | +5.1% | +3.5% | +2.6% | +4.0% | +3.6% | +4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $422K | $410K | $405K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $584K | $642K | $681K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$422K to $584K
33.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$405K to $681K
53.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrollton · 75010 · (Tract 216.49) | $452K | $516K | +14.1% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| Little Elm | $457K | $520K | +13.7% | |
| Sanger | $458K | $519K | +13.3% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey (Tract 020124) | $457K | $511K | +11.8% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey (Tract 020136) | $458K | $495K | +8.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrollton · 75010 · (Tract 216.49) | $452K | $516K | +14.1% | |
| Denton | $240K | $295K | +23.2% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| The Colony | $734K | $876K | +19.3% | |
| Carrollton | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $345K | $405K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrollton · 75010 · (Tract 216.49) | $452K | $516K | $276K | |
| Denton (Tract 020605) | $240K | $295K | $138K | |
| Denton (Tract 020800) | $235K | $258K | $112K | |
| Denton (Tract 020603) | $220K | $234K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.