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Collin, TX · ZIP 75034 · Census Tract 48085030505 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$589K
Downside (P10)
$530K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$657K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$906K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $402K | $365K | $412K | $438K | $447K | $454K | $463K | $543K | $602K | $599K | $589K | $610K | $628K | $657K | $623K |
| YoY Change | -9.3% | +13.0% | +6.3% | +2.2% | +1.5% | +1.9% | +17.3% | +10.9% | -0.6% | -1.6% | +3.5% | +2.9% | +4.7% | -5.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $553K | $530K | $530K | $544K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $743K | $772K | $906K | $707K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$553K to $743K
31.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$544K to $707K
26.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco · 75034 · (Tract 305.5) | $589K | $657K | +11.6% | |
| Plano (Tract 031657) | $592K | $664K | +12.1% | |
| Plano (Tract 031676) | $592K | $660K | +11.4% | |
| Richardson | $586K | $652K | +11.3% | |
| Plano (Tract 032016) | $596K | $661K | +10.9% | |
| Plano (Tract 031680) | $585K | $626K | +6.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco · 75034 · (Tract 305.5) | $589K | $657K | +11.6% | |
| McKinney | $473K | $580K | +22.6% | |
| Plano (Tract 031625) | $454K | $542K | +19.4% | |
| Dallas | $982K | $1.17M | +18.9% | |
| Plano (Tract 031678) | $639K | $757K | +18.5% | |
| Far North Dallas | $687K | $813K | +18.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco · 75034 · (Tract 305.5) | $589K | $657K | $376K | |
| Princeton (Tract 031008) | $291K | $288K | $153K | |
| McKinney (Tract 030901) | $318K | $347K | $152K | |
| McKinney (Tract 030701) | $277K | $310K | $138K | |
| Plano | $298K | $334K | $134K | |
| Princeton (Tract 031005) | $170K | $185K | $108K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.