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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Brazoria, TX · ZIP 77566 · Census Tract 48039663200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$272K
Downside (P10)
$220K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$288K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$420K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $153K | $160K | $164K | $170K | $182K | $199K | $208K | $234K | $249K | $267K | $272K | $271K | $281K | $288K |
| YoY Change | +4.2% | +2.4% | +4.2% | +6.6% | +9.5% | +4.4% | +12.7% | +6.3% | +7.4% | +2.0% | -0.5% | +3.7% | +2.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $224K | $216K | $220K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $328K | $371K | $420K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$224K to $328K
38.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$220K to $420K
69.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Jackson · 77566 · (Tract 6632) | $269K | $288K | +7.1% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 661502) | $272K | $302K | +11.1% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 661501) | $276K | $306K | +11.0% | |
| Brazosport (Tract 663400) | $265K | $294K | +10.7% | |
| Brazosport (Tract 664200) | $275K | $300K | +9.3% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 661601) | $272K | $294K | +8.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Jackson · 77566 · (Tract 6632) | $269K | $288K | +7.1% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660615) | $297K | $357K | +20.1% | |
| Pearland | $334K | $397K | +18.9% | |
| Angleton | $399K | $466K | +16.7% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660707) | $342K | $397K | +16.0% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660501) | $368K | $420K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Jackson · 77566 · (Tract 6632) | $269K | $288K | $200K | |
| Clute | $154K | $163K | $86K | |
| Alvin-Pearland | $165K | $175K | $86K | |
| Alvin | $158K | $167K | $85K | |
| Brazosport | $146K | $162K | $67K | |
| Freeport | $127K | $138K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.