Bastrop, TX · ZIP 78602 · Census Tract 48021950301 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$536K
Downside (P10)
$447K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$584K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$741K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +38%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Bastrop markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $241K | $338K | $435K | $423K | $533K | $536K | $544K | $554K | $584K |
| YoY Change | +40.4% | +28.7% | -2.8% | +25.8% | +0.7% | +1.5% | +1.9% | +5.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $441K | $439K | $447K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $646K | $688K | $741K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$441K to $646K
37.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$447K to $741K
50.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock area | $542K | $584K | +7.9% | |
| Bastrop | $411K | $435K | +6.1% | |
| Bastrop | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Elgin | $361K | $381K | +5.3% | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $359K | $378K | +5.1% | |
| Bastrop | $351K | $380K | +8.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock area | $542K | $584K | +7.9% | |
| Bastrop | $192K | $225K | +17.4% | |
| Bastrop | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | +15.1% | |
| Elgin | $289K | $328K | +13.8% | |
| Bastrop | $286K | $324K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock area | $542K | $584K | $295K | |
| Bastrop | $192K | $225K | $117K | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | $124K | |
| Elgin | $262K | $267K | $147K | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $284K | $309K | $152K | |
| Bastrop | $297K | $294K | $152K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.