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Bastrop, TX · ZIP 78602 · Census Tract 48021950301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$536K
Downside (P10)
$447K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$584K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$741K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $241K | $338K | $435K | $423K | $533K | $536K | $544K | $554K | $584K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$295,343 | -$198,043 | -$101,043 | -$113,043 | -$3,843 | +$8,069 | +$18,151 | +$48,157 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.1% | -36.9% | -18.8% | -21.1% | -0.7% | +1.5% | +3.4% | +9.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $441K | $439K | $447K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $646K | $688K | $741K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$441K to $646K
37.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$447K to $741K
50.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock area | $542K | $584K | +7.9% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950402) | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950403) | $351K | $380K | +8.0% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950504) | $411K | $435K | +6.1% | |
| Elgin | $361K | $381K | +5.3% | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $359K | $378K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock area | $542K | $584K | +7.9% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950506) | $192K | $225K | +17.4% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950402) | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | +15.1% | |
| Elgin | $289K | $328K | +13.8% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950505) | $286K | $324K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock area | $542K | $584K | $295K | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950503) | $297K | $294K | $152K | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $284K | $309K | $152K | |
| Elgin | $262K | $267K | $147K | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | $124K | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950506) | $192K | $225K | $117K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Bastrop, TX · ZIP 78602 · Census Tract 48021950301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$536K
Downside (P10)
$447K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$584K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$741K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $241K | $338K | $435K | $423K | $533K | $536K | $544K | $554K | $584K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$295,343 | -$198,043 | -$101,043 | -$113,043 | -$3,843 | +$8,069 | +$18,151 | +$48,157 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.1% | -36.9% | -18.8% | -21.1% | -0.7% | +1.5% | +3.4% | +9.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $441K | $439K | $447K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $646K | $688K | $741K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$441K to $646K
37.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$447K to $741K
50.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock area | $542K | $584K | +7.9% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950402) | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950403) | $351K | $380K | +8.0% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950504) | $411K | $435K | +6.1% | |
| Elgin | $361K | $381K | +5.3% | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $359K | $378K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock area | $542K | $584K | +7.9% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950506) | $192K | $225K | +17.4% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950402) | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | +15.1% | |
| Elgin | $289K | $328K | +13.8% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950505) | $286K | $324K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock area | $542K | $584K | $295K | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950503) | $297K | $294K | $152K | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $284K | $309K | $152K | |
| Elgin | $262K | $267K | $147K | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | $124K | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950506) | $192K | $225K | $117K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
