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Austin, TX · ZIP 78727 · Census Tract 48453031600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$712K
Downside (P10)
$614K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$752K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$970K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $435K | $461K | $589K | $660K | $677K | $712K | $725K | $745K | $752K |
| YoY Change | +5.9% | +27.9% | +12.1% | +2.5% | +5.2% | +1.9% | +2.8% | +1.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $618K | $640K | $614K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $840K | $930K | $970K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$618K to $840K
30.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$614K to $970K
47.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scofield | $693K | $752K | +8.6% | |
| Northwest Travis | $714K | $825K | +15.6% | |
| East Austin | $707K | $799K | +13.0% | |
| Anderson Mill | $716K | $793K | +10.8% | |
| Oak Hill | $713K | $763K | +7.0% | |
| Lakeway | $714K | $728K | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scofield | $693K | $752K | +8.6% | |
| North Austin | $410K | $501K | +22.2% | |
| South Austin (Tract 002448) | $333K | $406K | +22.1% | |
| Northeast Travis | $526K | $638K | +21.3% | |
| Steiner Ranch | $894K | $1.08M | +20.4% | |
| South Austin (Tract 002442) | $425K | $510K | +20.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scofield | $693K | $752K | $357K | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 045800) | $239K | $256K | $121K | |
| Northwest Travis | $160K | $170K | $116K | |
| Riverside | $170K | $179K | $106K | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 044800) | $118K | $135K | $68K | |
| South Austin | $67K | $73K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.