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Austin, TX · ZIP 78641 · Census Tract 48453036100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$726K
Downside (P10)
$630K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$825K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.14M
+57% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $487K | $495K | $642K | $682K | $715K | $726K | $768K | $828K | $825K | $754K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$239,804 | -$231,704 | -$84,704 | -$44,004 | -$11,604 | +$41,546 | +$101,848 | +$98,759 | +$27,531 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.0% | -31.9% | -11.7% | -6.1% | -1.6% | +5.7% | +14.0% | +13.6% | +3.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $597K | $605K | $630K | $670K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $955K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $833K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$597K to $955K
46.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$670K to $833K
21.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Travis | $738K | $830K | +12.4% | |
| Austin (Tract 000205) | $716K | $796K | +11.1% | |
| Austin (Tract 000401) | $727K | $790K | +8.6% | |
| Austin (Tract 002500) | $721K | $749K | +3.9% | |
| Hudson Bend | $714K | $728K | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 002448) | $333K | $406K | +22.1% | |
| Austin (Tract 002442) | $425K | $510K | +20.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 002437) | $451K | $542K | +20.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 000803) | $636K | $762K | +19.8% | |
| Austin (Tract 030100) | $569K | $678K | +19.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 000607) | $293K | $317K | $157K | |
| Austin (Tract 002441) | $199K | $208K | $135K | |
| Austin (Tract 002450) | $221K | $249K | $129K | |
| Austin (Tract 002327) | $170K | $179K | $106K | |
| Austin (Tract 002430) | $67K | $73K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Austin, TX · ZIP 78641 · Census Tract 48453036100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$726K
Downside (P10)
$630K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$825K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.14M
+57% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $487K | $495K | $642K | $682K | $715K | $726K | $768K | $828K | $825K | $754K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$239,804 | -$231,704 | -$84,704 | -$44,004 | -$11,604 | +$41,546 | +$101,848 | +$98,759 | +$27,531 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.0% | -31.9% | -11.7% | -6.1% | -1.6% | +5.7% | +14.0% | +13.6% | +3.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $597K | $605K | $630K | $670K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $955K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $833K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$597K to $955K
46.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$670K to $833K
21.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Travis | $738K | $830K | +12.4% | |
| Austin (Tract 000205) | $716K | $796K | +11.1% | |
| Austin (Tract 000401) | $727K | $790K | +8.6% | |
| Austin (Tract 002500) | $721K | $749K | +3.9% | |
| Hudson Bend | $714K | $728K | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 002448) | $333K | $406K | +22.1% | |
| Austin (Tract 002442) | $425K | $510K | +20.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 002437) | $451K | $542K | +20.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 000803) | $636K | $762K | +19.8% | |
| Austin (Tract 030100) | $569K | $678K | +19.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 000607) | $293K | $317K | $157K | |
| Austin (Tract 002441) | $199K | $208K | $135K | |
| Austin (Tract 002450) | $221K | $249K | $129K | |
| Austin (Tract 002327) | $170K | $179K | $106K | |
| Austin (Tract 002430) | $67K | $73K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
