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Austin, TX · ZIP 78723 · Census Tract 48453002105 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$507K
Downside (P10)
$467K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$568K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$765K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $205K | $225K | $263K | $300K | $328K | $354K | $360K | $386K | $413K | $489K | $507K | $531K | $549K | $568K |
| YoY Change | +9.8% | +17.0% | +13.9% | +9.2% | +7.9% | +1.8% | +7.3% | +7.0% | +18.3% | +3.7% | +4.7% | +3.4% | +3.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $471K | $456K | $467K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $650K | $713K | $765K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$471K to $650K
33.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$467K to $765K
52.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mueller · 78723 · (Tract 21.5) | $502K | $568K | +13.3% | |
| South Austin | $509K | $601K | +18.1% | |
| Allandale | $508K | $575K | +13.1% | |
| Austin | $509K | $572K | +12.4% | |
| North Austin | $504K | $564K | +11.8% | |
| Wells Branch | $505K | $555K | +10.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mueller · 78723 · (Tract 21.5) | $502K | $568K | +13.3% | |
| North Austin | $410K | $501K | +22.2% | |
| South Austin (Tract 002448) | $333K | $406K | +22.1% | |
| Northeast Travis | $526K | $638K | +21.3% | |
| Steiner Ranch | $894K | $1.08M | +20.4% | |
| South Austin (Tract 002442) | $425K | $510K | +20.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mueller · 78723 · (Tract 21.5) | $502K | $568K | $298K | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 045800) | $239K | $256K | $121K | |
| Northwest Travis | $160K | $170K | $116K | |
| Riverside | $170K | $179K | $106K | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 044800) | $118K | $135K | $68K | |
| South Austin | $67K | $73K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.