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Austin, TX · ZIP 78738 · Census Tract 48453035400 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.16M
Downside (P10)
$973K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.27M
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.74M
+50% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $666K | $653K | $831K | $896K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M |
| YoY Change | -2.0% | +27.3% | +7.8% | +24.8% | +3.9% | +3.9% | +1.7% | +3.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $980K | $985K | $973K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$980K to $1.44M
37.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$973K to $1.74M
60.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bee Cave · 78738 · (Tract 354) | $1.16M | $1.27M | +10.0% | |
| Travis Heights (Tract 001312) | $1.16M | $1.20M | +4.2% | |
| Westlake | $1.18M | $1.36M | +15.7% | |
| Travis Heights (Tract 001402) | $1.19M | $1.28M | +7.0% | |
| Travis Heights (Tract 001922) | $1.13M | $1.29M | +14.1% | |
| Travis Heights (Tract 001923) | $1.12M | $1.25M | +11.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bee Cave · 78738 · (Tract 354) | $1.16M | $1.27M | +10.0% | |
| North Austin | $410K | $501K | +22.2% | |
| South Austin (Tract 002448) | $333K | $406K | +22.1% | |
| Northeast Travis | $526K | $638K | +21.3% | |
| Steiner Ranch | $894K | $1.08M | +20.4% | |
| South Austin (Tract 002442) | $425K | $510K | +20.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bee Cave · 78738 · (Tract 354) | $1.16M | $1.27M | $771K | |
| South Austin | $67K | $73K | $49K | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 044800) | $118K | $135K | $68K | |
| Riverside | $170K | $179K | $106K | |
| Northwest Travis | $160K | $170K | $116K | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 045800) | $239K | $256K | $121K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.