Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
Memphis, TN · ZIP 38017 · Census Tract 47157021546 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$617K
Downside (P10)
$523K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$648K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$831K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $319K | $445K | $563K | $576K | $602K | $617K | $634K | $644K | $648K |
| YoY Change | +39.5% | +26.5% | +2.3% | +4.6% | +2.5% | +2.8% | +1.5% | +0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $531K | $525K | $523K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $731K | $795K | $831K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$531K to $731K
31.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$523K to $831K
47.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collierville | $608K | $648K | +6.6% | |
| Collierville (Tract 021543) | $610K | $692K | +13.5% | |
| Germantown | $646K | $696K | +7.8% | |
| Collierville (Tract 021530) | $599K | $638K | +6.5% | |
| Memphis | $658K | $692K | +5.2% | |
| Collierville (Tract 021542) | $658K | $667K | +1.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collierville | $608K | $648K | +6.6% | |
| 1 area | $157K | $187K | +19.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022322) | $112K | $134K | +19.2% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022122) | $121K | $144K | +19.0% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022121) | $179K | $212K | +18.5% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007810) | $77K | $91K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collierville | $608K | $648K | $308K | |
| Memphis (Tract 011100) | $61K | $63K | $29K | |
| Memphis (Tract 009902) | $59K | $60K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.