Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
Memphis, TN · ZIP 38114 · Census Tract 47157006200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$79K
Downside (P10)
$67K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$85K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$114K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $61K | $60K | $60K | $60K | $60K | $64K | $65K | $72K | $76K | $77K | $79K | $81K | $85K | $85K |
| YoY Change | -2.8% | +0.2% | +0.0% | +0.5% | +6.0% | +1.9% | +11.6% | +5.1% | +1.4% | +2.0% | +2.6% | +4.6% | +0.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $69K | $70K | $67K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $99K | $105K | $114K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$69K to $99K
36.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$67K to $114K
55.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | $78K | $85K | +8.4% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022210) | $78K | $87K | +11.6% | |
| Memphis (Tract 008110) | $80K | $87K | +8.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 010120) | $80K | $86K | +8.1% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007900) | $79K | $85K | +7.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 011300) | $79K | $83K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | $78K | $85K | +8.4% | |
| 1 area | $157K | $187K | +19.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022322) | $112K | $134K | +19.2% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022122) | $121K | $144K | +19.0% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022121) | $179K | $212K | +18.5% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007810) | $77K | $91K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | $78K | $85K | $47K | |
| Memphis (Tract 011100) | $61K | $63K | $29K | |
| Memphis (Tract 009902) | $59K | $60K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.