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Memphis, TN · ZIP 38104 · Census Tract 47157002500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$313K
Downside (P10)
$272K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$338K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$437K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $145K | $140K | $158K | $187K | $187K | $190K | $237K | $271K | $299K | $302K | $313K | $322K | $332K | $338K | $319K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$168,072 | -$172,972 | -$154,872 | -$125,372 | -$125,672 | -$122,972 | -$75,672 | -$41,872 | -$14,072 | -$10,872 | +$9,140 | +$19,555 | +$25,602 | +$6,630 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -53.8% | -55.3% | -49.5% | -40.1% | -40.2% | -39.3% | -24.2% | -13.4% | -4.5% | -3.5% | +2.9% | +6.3% | +8.2% | +2.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $287K | $288K | $272K | $281K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $361K | $394K | $437K | $362K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$287K to $361K
22.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$281K to $362K
25.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis · 38104 · (Tract 25) | $307K | $338K | +10.1% | |
| 1 (Tract 020700) | $304K | $336K | +10.7% | |
| Memphis (Tract 003400) | $308K | $339K | +9.9% | |
| 1 (Tract 020102) | $304K | $321K | +5.6% | |
| Memphis (Tract 006300) | $311K | $327K | +5.0% | |
| Memphis (Tract 003300) | $309K | $324K | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis · 38104 · (Tract 25) | $307K | $338K | +10.1% | |
| 1 area | $157K | $187K | +19.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007810) | $77K | $91K | +17.4% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007200) | $303K | $351K | +15.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 020523) | $103K | $119K | +15.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 010002) | $96K | $112K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis · 38104 · (Tract 25) | $307K | $338K | $165K | |
| Memphis (Tract 011100) | $61K | $63K | $29K | |
| Memphis (Tract 009902) | $59K | $60K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Memphis, TN · ZIP 38104 · Census Tract 47157002500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$313K
Downside (P10)
$272K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$338K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$437K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $145K | $140K | $158K | $187K | $187K | $190K | $237K | $271K | $299K | $302K | $313K | $322K | $332K | $338K | $319K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$168,072 | -$172,972 | -$154,872 | -$125,372 | -$125,672 | -$122,972 | -$75,672 | -$41,872 | -$14,072 | -$10,872 | +$9,140 | +$19,555 | +$25,602 | +$6,630 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -53.8% | -55.3% | -49.5% | -40.1% | -40.2% | -39.3% | -24.2% | -13.4% | -4.5% | -3.5% | +2.9% | +6.3% | +8.2% | +2.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $287K | $288K | $272K | $281K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $361K | $394K | $437K | $362K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$287K to $361K
22.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$281K to $362K
25.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis · 38104 · (Tract 25) | $307K | $338K | +10.1% | |
| 1 (Tract 020700) | $304K | $336K | +10.7% | |
| Memphis (Tract 003400) | $308K | $339K | +9.9% | |
| 1 (Tract 020102) | $304K | $321K | +5.6% | |
| Memphis (Tract 006300) | $311K | $327K | +5.0% | |
| Memphis (Tract 003300) | $309K | $324K | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis · 38104 · (Tract 25) | $307K | $338K | +10.1% | |
| 1 area | $157K | $187K | +19.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007810) | $77K | $91K | +17.4% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007200) | $303K | $351K | +15.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 020523) | $103K | $119K | +15.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 010002) | $96K | $112K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis · 38104 · (Tract 25) | $307K | $338K | $165K | |
| Memphis (Tract 011100) | $61K | $63K | $29K | |
| Memphis (Tract 009902) | $59K | $60K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
