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Lawrence, SD · ZIP 57783 · Census Tract 46081966200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$322K
Downside (P10)
$278K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$350K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$455K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $213K | $216K | $207K | $208K | $201K | $203K | $220K | $252K | $267K | $309K | $322K | $324K | $331K | $350K | $322K |
| YoY Change | +1.6% | -4.4% | +0.8% | -3.7% | +1.0% | +8.4% | +14.6% | +6.0% | +15.6% | +4.3% | +0.6% | +2.2% | +5.8% | -8.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $289K | $280K | $278K | $282K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $391K | $409K | $455K | $367K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$289K to $391K
31.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$282K to $367K
26.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spearfish | $314K | $350K | +11.7% | |
| North Lawrence (Tract 966304) | $264K | $305K | +15.2% | |
| North Lawrence (Tract 966301) | $386K | $421K | +9.2% | |
| South Lawrence (Tract 966102) | $299K | $319K | +6.9% | |
| South Lawrence (Tract 966601) | $447K | $476K | +6.3% | |
| North Lawrence (Tract 966101) | $376K | $380K | +0.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spearfish | $314K | $350K | +11.7% | |
| North Lawrence (Tract 966304) | $264K | $305K | +15.2% | |
| North Lawrence (Tract 966301) | $386K | $421K | +9.2% | |
| South Lawrence (Tract 966102) | $299K | $319K | +6.9% | |
| South Lawrence (Tract 966601) | $447K | $476K | +6.3% | |
| North Lawrence (Tract 966303) | $499K | $521K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spearfish | $314K | $350K | $177K | |
| North Lawrence (Tract 966301) | $386K | $421K | $240K | |
| North Lawrence (Tract 966101) | $376K | $380K | $235K | |
| South Lawrence | $299K | $319K | $199K | |
| North Lawrence (Tract 966304) | $264K | $305K | $126K | |
| Lead | $192K | $199K | $99K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.