County 46595, SD · Census Tract 46595001086 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$766K
Downside (P10)
$298K
-61% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$617K
-19% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.09M
+43% by 2030
Base case: -19% by 2030, with a forecast range from -61% to +43%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 46595 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $766K | $769K | $686K | $613K | $617K |
| YoY Change | +0.3% | -10.7% | -10.6% | +0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $505K | $430K | $314K | $298K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$627K to $996K
48.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$298K to $1.09M
128.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001125 | $769K | $565K | -26.6% |
| Tract 000401 | $770K | $655K | -14.9% |
| Tract 000184 | $772K | $707K | -8.5% |
| Tract 000744 | $759K | $620K | -18.2% |
| Tract 000126 | $756K | $650K | -14.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000841 | $787K | $751K | -4.6% |
| Tract 000184 | $772K | $707K | -8.5% |
| Tract 000126 | $756K | $650K | -14.0% |
| Tract 000401 | $770K | $655K | -14.9% |
| Tract 000744 | $759K | $620K | -18.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000265 | $739K | $590K | $794K |
| Tract 001044 | $749K | $610K | $799K |
| Tract 001125 | $769K | $565K | $808K |
| Tract 000744 | $759K | $620K | $867K |
| Tract 000906 | $875K | $690K | $895K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources