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Sumter, SC · ZIP 29153 · Census Tract 45085000600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$122K
Downside (P10)
$98K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$126K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$179K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $82K | $83K | $89K | $89K | $90K | $84K | $84K | $94K | $104K | $116K | $122K | $126K | $128K | $126K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$40,352 | -$39,852 | -$33,452 | -$33,852 | -$32,152 | -$38,052 | -$38,152 | -$28,652 | -$18,752 | -$6,352 | +$3,238 | +$5,715 | +$3,770 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.0% | -32.5% | -27.3% | -27.6% | -26.3% | -31.1% | -31.2% | -23.4% | -15.3% | -5.2% | +2.6% | +4.7% | +3.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $102K | $99K | $98K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $150K | $169K | $179K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$102K to $150K
38.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$98K to $179K
63.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter Southeast | $118K | $126K | +6.6% | |
| Sumter (Tract 000901) | $129K | $144K | +11.3% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $108K | $115K | +6.6% | |
| Sumter (Tract 002000) | $121K | $129K | +6.2% | |
| Sumter (Tract 000700) | $108K | $114K | +5.6% | |
| Shiloh | $116K | $122K | +5.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter Southeast | $118K | $126K | +6.6% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000202) | $188K | $216K | +14.8% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000300) | $199K | $227K | +13.9% | |
| Privateer | $205K | $229K | +11.9% | |
| Sumter | $129K | $144K | +11.3% | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter Southeast | $118K | $126K | $80K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001100) | $77K | $80K | $50K | |
| Sumter (Tract 000800) | $95K | $99K | $45K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001500) | $83K | $90K | $43K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001600) | $65K | $70K | $42K | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Sumter, SC · ZIP 29153 · Census Tract 45085000600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$122K
Downside (P10)
$98K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$126K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$179K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $82K | $83K | $89K | $89K | $90K | $84K | $84K | $94K | $104K | $116K | $122K | $126K | $128K | $126K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$40,352 | -$39,852 | -$33,452 | -$33,852 | -$32,152 | -$38,052 | -$38,152 | -$28,652 | -$18,752 | -$6,352 | +$3,238 | +$5,715 | +$3,770 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.0% | -32.5% | -27.3% | -27.6% | -26.3% | -31.1% | -31.2% | -23.4% | -15.3% | -5.2% | +2.6% | +4.7% | +3.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $102K | $99K | $98K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $150K | $169K | $179K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$102K to $150K
38.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$98K to $179K
63.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter Southeast | $118K | $126K | +6.6% | |
| Sumter (Tract 000901) | $129K | $144K | +11.3% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $108K | $115K | +6.6% | |
| Sumter (Tract 002000) | $121K | $129K | +6.2% | |
| Sumter (Tract 000700) | $108K | $114K | +5.6% | |
| Shiloh | $116K | $122K | +5.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter Southeast | $118K | $126K | +6.6% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000202) | $188K | $216K | +14.8% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000300) | $199K | $227K | +13.9% | |
| Privateer | $205K | $229K | +11.9% | |
| Sumter | $129K | $144K | +11.3% | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter Southeast | $118K | $126K | $80K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001100) | $77K | $80K | $50K | |
| Sumter (Tract 000800) | $95K | $99K | $45K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001500) | $83K | $90K | $43K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001600) | $65K | $70K | $42K | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
