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Charleston, SC · ZIP 29412 · Census Tract 45019002007 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$840K
Downside (P10)
$677K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$883K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.12M
+33% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $382K | $422K | $405K | $443K | $488K | $542K | $535K | $648K | $694K | $816K | $840K | $854K | $868K | $883K | $848K |
| YoY Change | +10.6% | -4.1% | +9.6% | +10.0% | +11.2% | -1.4% | +21.2% | +7.0% | +17.6% | +2.9% | +1.7% | +1.6% | +1.8% | -4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $734K | $720K | $677K | $753K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $989K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $958K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$734K to $989K
29.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$753K to $958K
24.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Island | $834K | $883K | +5.9% | |
| Charleston | $836K | $961K | +15.0% | |
| Mount Pleasant (Tract 004617) | $847K | $955K | +12.7% | |
| Mount Pleasant (Tract 004613) | $820K | $912K | +11.2% | |
| Mount Pleasant (Tract 004620) | $851K | $922K | +8.4% | |
| Mount Pleasant (Tract 004616) | $855K | $897K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Island | $834K | $883K | +5.9% | |
| North Charleston | $305K | $377K | +23.5% | |
| West Ashley (Tract 002611) | $348K | $426K | +22.4% | |
| Mount Pleasant (Tract 004609) | $641K | $768K | +19.8% | |
| West Ashley (Tract 005601) | $522K | $624K | +19.7% | |
| Mount Pleasant (Tract 004800) | $2.06M | $2.45M | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Island | $834K | $883K | $439K | |
| North Charleston (Tract 003104) | $156K | $170K | $87K | |
| North Charleston (Tract 004000) | $121K | $136K | $68K | |
| North Charleston (Tract 003300) | $117K | $134K | $65K | |
| Ravenel-Hollywood | $125K | $138K | $61K | |
| North Charleston (Tract 005500) | $120K | $128K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.