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Charleston, SC · ZIP 29438 · Census Tract 45019002300 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$528K
Downside (P10)
$460K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$538K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$714K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $198K | $211K | $202K | $261K | $302K | $348K | $317K | $359K | $456K | $520K | $528K | $535K | $542K | $538K |
| YoY Change | +6.5% | -4.4% | +29.5% | +15.4% | +15.4% | -8.9% | +13.0% | +27.0% | +14.1% | +1.4% | +1.4% | +1.2% | -0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $473K | $460K | $460K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $624K | $679K | $714K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$473K to $624K
28.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$460K to $714K
47.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edisto Island | $520K | $538K | +3.4% | |
| West Ashley | $522K | $624K | +19.7% | |
| Charleston (Tract 004400) | $515K | $559K | +8.5% | |
| Charleston (Tract 001500) | $546K | $591K | +8.3% | |
| James Island | $511K | $541K | +6.0% | |
| Charleston (Tract 002606) | $542K | $573K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edisto Island | $520K | $538K | +3.4% | |
| North Charleston | $305K | $377K | +23.5% | |
| West Ashley (Tract 002611) | $348K | $426K | +22.4% | |
| Mount Pleasant (Tract 004609) | $641K | $768K | +19.8% | |
| West Ashley (Tract 005601) | $522K | $624K | +19.7% | |
| Mount Pleasant (Tract 004800) | $2.06M | $2.45M | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edisto Island | $520K | $538K | $253K | |
| North Charleston (Tract 003104) | $156K | $170K | $87K | |
| North Charleston (Tract 004000) | $121K | $136K | $68K | |
| North Charleston (Tract 003300) | $117K | $134K | $65K | |
| Ravenel-Hollywood | $125K | $138K | $61K | |
| North Charleston (Tract 005500) | $120K | $128K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.