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Polk, OR · ZIP 97338 · Census Tract 41053020500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$483K
Downside (P10)
$412K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$541K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$674K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $223K | $211K | $234K | $245K | $262K | $289K | $320K | $385K | $436K | $471K | $483K | $488K | $511K | $541K |
| YoY Change | -5.3% | +11.0% | +4.7% | +7.1% | +10.3% | +10.6% | +20.1% | +13.4% | +8.0% | +2.6% | +1.0% | +4.8% | +5.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $397K | $418K | $412K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $597K | $622K | $674K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$397K to $597K
40.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$412K to $674K
48.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas · 97338 · (Tract 205) | $476K | $541K | +13.7% | |
| Dallas | $455K | $518K | +13.8% | |
| Salem (Tract 005205) | $491K | $550K | +12.1% | |
| Monmouth-Independence | $502K | $552K | +10.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 005203) | $495K | $531K | +7.3% | |
| Salem (Tract 005204) | $475K | $497K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas · 97338 · (Tract 205) | $476K | $541K | +13.7% | |
| Dallas (Tract 020202) | $407K | $488K | +20.0% | |
| Dallas (Tract 020204) | $455K | $518K | +13.8% | |
| Falls City | $393K | $441K | +12.3% | |
| Salem (Tract 005205) | $491K | $550K | +12.1% | |
| Salem (Tract 005301) | $597K | $663K | +11.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas · 97338 · (Tract 205) | $476K | $541K | $262K | |
| Monmouth-Independence (Tract 020304) | $387K | $422K | $245K | |
| Dallas (Tract 020202) | $407K | $488K | $241K | |
| Dallas (Tract 020203) | $366K | $404K | $234K | |
| Monmouth-Independence (Tract 020305) | $379K | $412K | $225K | |
| Salem | $339K | $371K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.