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Marion, OR · Census Tract 41047880006 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$324K
Downside (P10)
$254K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$425K
+31% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$690K
+113% by 2030
Base case: +31% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +113%. The model forecasts this with 44% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $324K | $358K | $370K | $390K | $425K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$33,865 | +$46,232 | +$65,658 | +$100,451 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +10.4% | +14.3% | +20.3% | +31.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $248K | $240K | $236K | $254K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $486K | $545K | $617K | $690K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$248K to $486K
66.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$254K to $690K
102.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880006 | $324K | $425K | +31.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 000300) | $314K | $352K | +12.1% | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010307) | $308K | $341K | +10.7% | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010308) | $328K | $353K | +7.7% | |
| Salem (Tract 001702) | $341K | $366K | +7.3% | |
| Salem (Tract 001608) | $324K | $345K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880006 | $324K | $425K | +31.0% | |
| Marion (Tract 200000) | $207K | $305K | +47.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 920005) | $223K | $327K | +46.3% | |
| Marion (Tract 240002) | $107K | $154K | +44.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 080204) | $105K | $146K | +38.8% | |
| Marion (Tract 000006) | $105K | $145K | +37.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880006 | $324K | $425K | $436K | |
| Salem (Tract 001200) | $403K | $411K | $89K | |
| Salem (Tract 001601) | $374K | $396K | $88K | |
| Salem (Tract 001802) | $355K | $362K | $84K | |
| Salem (Tract 000502) | $346K | $348K | $81K | |
| Salem (Tract 001803) | $70K | $74K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Marion, OR · Census Tract 41047880006 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$324K
Downside (P10)
$254K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$425K
+31% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$690K
+113% by 2030
Base case: +31% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +113%. The model forecasts this with 44% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $324K | $358K | $370K | $390K | $425K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$33,865 | +$46,232 | +$65,658 | +$100,451 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +10.4% | +14.3% | +20.3% | +31.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $248K | $240K | $236K | $254K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $486K | $545K | $617K | $690K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$248K to $486K
66.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$254K to $690K
102.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880006 | $324K | $425K | +31.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 000300) | $314K | $352K | +12.1% | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010307) | $308K | $341K | +10.7% | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010308) | $328K | $353K | +7.7% | |
| Salem (Tract 001702) | $341K | $366K | +7.3% | |
| Salem (Tract 001608) | $324K | $345K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880006 | $324K | $425K | +31.0% | |
| Marion (Tract 200000) | $207K | $305K | +47.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 920005) | $223K | $327K | +46.3% | |
| Marion (Tract 240002) | $107K | $154K | +44.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 080204) | $105K | $146K | +38.8% | |
| Marion (Tract 000006) | $105K | $145K | +37.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880006 | $324K | $425K | $436K | |
| Salem (Tract 001200) | $403K | $411K | $89K | |
| Salem (Tract 001601) | $374K | $396K | $88K | |
| Salem (Tract 001802) | $355K | $362K | $84K | |
| Salem (Tract 000502) | $346K | $348K | $81K | |
| Salem (Tract 001803) | $70K | $74K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
