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Marion, OR · Census Tract 41047140005 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$431K
Downside (P10)
$385K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$538K
+25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$778K
+80% by 2030
Base case: +25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +80%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $431K | $513K | $504K | $526K | $538K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$81,242 | +$72,643 | +$94,247 | +$106,691 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +18.8% | +16.8% | +21.9% | +24.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $422K | $399K | $386K | $385K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $628K | $678K | $710K | $778K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$422K to $628K
40.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$385K to $778K
73.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 140005 | $431K | $538K | +24.7% | |
| Hubbard | $433K | $508K | +17.3% | |
| Salem (Tract 002502) | $435K | $480K | +10.3% | |
| Salem (Tract 001502) | $432K | $473K | +9.5% | |
| Salem (Tract 002303) | $434K | $450K | +3.7% | |
| Salem (Tract 000200) | $437K | $450K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 140005 | $431K | $538K | +24.7% | |
| Marion (Tract 200000) | $207K | $305K | +47.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 920005) | $223K | $327K | +46.3% | |
| Marion (Tract 240002) | $107K | $154K | +44.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 080204) | $105K | $146K | +38.8% | |
| Marion (Tract 000006) | $105K | $145K | +37.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 140005 | $431K | $538K | $393K | |
| Salem (Tract 001200) | $403K | $411K | $89K | |
| Salem (Tract 001601) | $374K | $396K | $88K | |
| Salem (Tract 001802) | $355K | $362K | $84K | |
| Salem (Tract 000502) | $346K | $348K | $81K | |
| Salem (Tract 001803) | $70K | $74K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Marion, OR · Census Tract 41047140005 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$431K
Downside (P10)
$385K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$538K
+25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$778K
+80% by 2030
Base case: +25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +80%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $431K | $513K | $504K | $526K | $538K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$81,242 | +$72,643 | +$94,247 | +$106,691 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +18.8% | +16.8% | +21.9% | +24.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $422K | $399K | $386K | $385K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $628K | $678K | $710K | $778K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$422K to $628K
40.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$385K to $778K
73.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 140005 | $431K | $538K | +24.7% | |
| Hubbard | $433K | $508K | +17.3% | |
| Salem (Tract 002502) | $435K | $480K | +10.3% | |
| Salem (Tract 001502) | $432K | $473K | +9.5% | |
| Salem (Tract 002303) | $434K | $450K | +3.7% | |
| Salem (Tract 000200) | $437K | $450K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 140005 | $431K | $538K | +24.7% | |
| Marion (Tract 200000) | $207K | $305K | +47.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 920005) | $223K | $327K | +46.3% | |
| Marion (Tract 240002) | $107K | $154K | +44.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 080204) | $105K | $146K | +38.8% | |
| Marion (Tract 000006) | $105K | $145K | +37.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 140005 | $431K | $538K | $393K | |
| Salem (Tract 001200) | $403K | $411K | $89K | |
| Salem (Tract 001601) | $374K | $396K | $88K | |
| Salem (Tract 001802) | $355K | $362K | $84K | |
| Salem (Tract 000502) | $346K | $348K | $81K | |
| Salem (Tract 001803) | $70K | $74K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
