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Lincoln, OR · Census Tract 41041040101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$133K
Downside (P10)
$117K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$208K
+56% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$352K
+165% by 2030
Base case: +56% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +165%. The model forecasts this with 38% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $133K | $169K | $183K | $192K | $208K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$35,510 | +$50,484 | +$58,500 | +$75,082 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +26.7% | +38.0% | +44.0% | +56.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $123K | $117K | $114K | $117K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $253K | $286K | $305K | $352K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$123K to $253K
77.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$117K to $352K
113.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040101 | $133K | $208K | +56.5% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 480004) | $131K | $181K | +37.5% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 680008) | $130K | $175K | +34.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 720007) | $112K | $147K | +30.8% | |
| Lincoln City | $321K | $342K | +6.8% | |
| Toledo | $313K | $317K | +1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040101 | $133K | $208K | +56.5% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 480004) | $131K | $181K | +37.5% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 680008) | $130K | $175K | +34.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 720007) | $112K | $147K | +30.8% | |
| Newport | $493K | $549K | +11.3% | |
| Waldport | $437K | $480K | +9.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040101 | $133K | $208K | $236K | |
| Waldport | $362K | $392K | $159K | |
| Lincoln (Tract 680008) | $130K | $175K | $146K | |
| Lincoln (Tract 720007) | $112K | $147K | $141K | |
| Toledo (Tract 951300) | $433K | $440K | $104K | |
| Toledo (Tract 951400) | $313K | $317K | $74K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lincoln, OR · Census Tract 41041040101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$133K
Downside (P10)
$117K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$208K
+56% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$352K
+165% by 2030
Base case: +56% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +165%. The model forecasts this with 38% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $133K | $169K | $183K | $192K | $208K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$35,510 | +$50,484 | +$58,500 | +$75,082 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +26.7% | +38.0% | +44.0% | +56.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $123K | $117K | $114K | $117K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $253K | $286K | $305K | $352K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$123K to $253K
77.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$117K to $352K
113.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040101 | $133K | $208K | +56.5% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 480004) | $131K | $181K | +37.5% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 680008) | $130K | $175K | +34.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 720007) | $112K | $147K | +30.8% | |
| Lincoln City | $321K | $342K | +6.8% | |
| Toledo | $313K | $317K | +1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040101 | $133K | $208K | +56.5% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 480004) | $131K | $181K | +37.5% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 680008) | $130K | $175K | +34.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 720007) | $112K | $147K | +30.8% | |
| Newport | $493K | $549K | +11.3% | |
| Waldport | $437K | $480K | +9.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040101 | $133K | $208K | $236K | |
| Waldport | $362K | $392K | $159K | |
| Lincoln (Tract 680008) | $130K | $175K | $146K | |
| Lincoln (Tract 720007) | $112K | $147K | $141K | |
| Toledo (Tract 951300) | $433K | $440K | $104K | |
| Toledo (Tract 951400) | $313K | $317K | $74K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
