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Douglas, OR · ZIP 97470 · Census Tract 41019110000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$474K
Downside (P10)
$369K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$517K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$713K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $265K | $265K | $278K | $299K | $297K | $319K | $349K | $381K | $404K | $456K | $474K | $483K | $499K | $517K | $475K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$209,664 | -$208,964 | -$195,964 | -$174,864 | -$177,464 | -$155,464 | -$125,464 | -$93,664 | -$69,864 | -$18,464 | +$9,031 | +$25,021 | +$42,707 | +$571 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -44.2% | -44.1% | -41.3% | -36.9% | -37.4% | -32.8% | -26.5% | -19.7% | -14.7% | -3.9% | +1.9% | +5.3% | +9.0% | +0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $428K | $412K | $369K | $414K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $567K | $611K | $713K | $525K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$428K to $567K
28.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$414K to $525K
23.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Umpqua | $469K | $517K | +10.3% | |
| Sutherlin (Tract 090002) | $554K | $626K | +12.9% | |
| Roseburg (Tract 080002) | $392K | $439K | +12.2% | |
| Roseburg (Tract 080001) | $415K | $456K | +9.9% | |
| Sutherlin (Tract 050001) | $408K | $438K | +7.3% | |
| Melrose | $495K | $505K | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Umpqua | $469K | $517K | +10.3% | |
| North Umpqua | $330K | $386K | +16.9% | |
| Roseburg (Tract 130001) | $198K | $226K | +14.1% | |
| Reedsport area | $310K | $353K | +14.0% | |
| Sutherlin | $554K | $626K | +12.9% | |
| Roseburg (Tract 080002) | $392K | $439K | +12.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Umpqua | $469K | $517K | $344K | |
| Tenmile | $280K | $293K | $135K | |
| Myrtle Creek-Riddle | $249K | $271K | $132K | |
| Sutherlin | $205K | $221K | $116K | |
| Roseburg (Tract 130001) | $198K | $226K | $106K | |
| Roseburg (Tract 120002) | $152K | $164K | $98K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Douglas, OR · ZIP 97470 · Census Tract 41019110000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$474K
Downside (P10)
$369K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$517K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$713K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $265K | $265K | $278K | $299K | $297K | $319K | $349K | $381K | $404K | $456K | $474K | $483K | $499K | $517K | $475K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$209,664 | -$208,964 | -$195,964 | -$174,864 | -$177,464 | -$155,464 | -$125,464 | -$93,664 | -$69,864 | -$18,464 | +$9,031 | +$25,021 | +$42,707 | +$571 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -44.2% | -44.1% | -41.3% | -36.9% | -37.4% | -32.8% | -26.5% | -19.7% | -14.7% | -3.9% | +1.9% | +5.3% | +9.0% | +0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $428K | $412K | $369K | $414K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $567K | $611K | $713K | $525K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$428K to $567K
28.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$414K to $525K
23.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Umpqua | $469K | $517K | +10.3% | |
| Sutherlin (Tract 090002) | $554K | $626K | +12.9% | |
| Roseburg (Tract 080002) | $392K | $439K | +12.2% | |
| Roseburg (Tract 080001) | $415K | $456K | +9.9% | |
| Sutherlin (Tract 050001) | $408K | $438K | +7.3% | |
| Melrose | $495K | $505K | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Umpqua | $469K | $517K | +10.3% | |
| North Umpqua | $330K | $386K | +16.9% | |
| Roseburg (Tract 130001) | $198K | $226K | +14.1% | |
| Reedsport area | $310K | $353K | +14.0% | |
| Sutherlin | $554K | $626K | +12.9% | |
| Roseburg (Tract 080002) | $392K | $439K | +12.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Umpqua | $469K | $517K | $344K | |
| Tenmile | $280K | $293K | $135K | |
| Myrtle Creek-Riddle | $249K | $271K | $132K | |
| Sutherlin | $205K | $221K | $116K | |
| Roseburg (Tract 130001) | $198K | $226K | $106K | |
| Roseburg (Tract 120002) | $152K | $164K | $98K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
