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Wagoner, OK · ZIP 74454 · Census Tract 40145030798 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$196K
Downside (P10)
$166K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$207K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$264K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $73K | $80K | $87K | $92K | $112K | $153K | $152K | $164K | $188K | $189K | $196K | $197K | $206K | $207K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$123,456 | -$116,056 | -$109,456 | -$104,756 | -$84,756 | -$43,856 | -$44,456 | -$32,456 | -$8,656 | -$7,356 | +$806 | +$9,128 | +$10,249 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -62.8% | -59.1% | -55.7% | -53.3% | -43.1% | -22.3% | -22.6% | -16.5% | -4.4% | -3.7% | +0.4% | +4.6% | +5.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $173K | $171K | $166K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $243K | $252K | $264K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$173K to $243K
35.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$166K to $264K
47.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Wagoner | $195K | $207K | +6.2% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030604) | $173K | $210K | +21.6% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030605) | $214K | $248K | +15.9% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030603) | $181K | $206K | +13.8% | |
| Broken Arrow | $221K | $246K | +11.3% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030408) | $202K | $222K | +9.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Wagoner | $195K | $207K | +6.2% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030604) | $173K | $210K | +21.6% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030509) | $320K | $377K | +17.9% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030605) | $214K | $248K | +15.9% | |
| Wagoner | $155K | $179K | +15.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030601) | $326K | $376K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Wagoner | $195K | $207K | $98K | |
| Coweta | $202K | $222K | $96K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030202) | $151K | $158K | $92K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030101) | $129K | $143K | $77K | |
| Tulsa | $118K | $135K | $70K | |
| Broken Arrow | $119K | $123K | $59K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Wagoner, OK · ZIP 74454 · Census Tract 40145030798 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$196K
Downside (P10)
$166K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$207K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$264K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $73K | $80K | $87K | $92K | $112K | $153K | $152K | $164K | $188K | $189K | $196K | $197K | $206K | $207K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$123,456 | -$116,056 | -$109,456 | -$104,756 | -$84,756 | -$43,856 | -$44,456 | -$32,456 | -$8,656 | -$7,356 | +$806 | +$9,128 | +$10,249 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -62.8% | -59.1% | -55.7% | -53.3% | -43.1% | -22.3% | -22.6% | -16.5% | -4.4% | -3.7% | +0.4% | +4.6% | +5.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $173K | $171K | $166K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $243K | $252K | $264K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$173K to $243K
35.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$166K to $264K
47.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Wagoner | $195K | $207K | +6.2% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030604) | $173K | $210K | +21.6% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030605) | $214K | $248K | +15.9% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030603) | $181K | $206K | +13.8% | |
| Broken Arrow | $221K | $246K | +11.3% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030408) | $202K | $222K | +9.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Wagoner | $195K | $207K | +6.2% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030604) | $173K | $210K | +21.6% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030509) | $320K | $377K | +17.9% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030605) | $214K | $248K | +15.9% | |
| Wagoner | $155K | $179K | +15.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030601) | $326K | $376K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Wagoner | $195K | $207K | $98K | |
| Coweta | $202K | $222K | $96K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030202) | $151K | $158K | $92K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030101) | $129K | $143K | $77K | |
| Tulsa | $118K | $135K | $70K | |
| Broken Arrow | $119K | $123K | $59K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
