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Wagoner, OK · ZIP 74014 · Census Tract 40145030505 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$284K
Downside (P10)
$247K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$303K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$389K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $157K | $162K | $162K | $165K | $169K | $175K | $185K | $227K | $243K | $274K | $284K | $295K | $301K | $303K |
| YoY Change | +3.4% | +0.2% | +1.8% | +2.1% | +3.4% | +5.7% | +23.0% | +7.0% | +12.6% | +3.7% | +4.2% | +1.9% | +0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $255K | $257K | $247K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $343K | $367K | $389K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$255K to $343K
29.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$247K to $389K
46.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coweta · Broken Arrow · (Tract 305.5) | $275K | $303K | +10.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030407) | $265K | $295K | +11.1% | |
| Wagoner | $271K | $301K | +11.0% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030512) | $301K | $332K | +10.0% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030508) | $287K | $312K | +9.0% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030402) | $285K | $302K | +6.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coweta · Broken Arrow · (Tract 305.5) | $275K | $303K | +10.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030604) | $173K | $210K | +21.6% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030509) | $320K | $377K | +17.9% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030605) | $214K | $248K | +15.9% | |
| Wagoner | $155K | $179K | +15.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030601) | $326K | $376K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coweta · Broken Arrow · (Tract 305.5) | $275K | $303K | $142K | |
| Coweta | $202K | $222K | $96K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030202) | $151K | $158K | $92K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030101) | $129K | $143K | $77K | |
| Tulsa | $118K | $135K | $70K | |
| Broken Arrow | $119K | $123K | $59K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.