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Wagoner, OK · ZIP 74014 · Census Tract 40145030406 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$254K
Downside (P10)
$197K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$270K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$333K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $153K | $156K | $158K | $167K | $169K | $170K | $176K | $211K | $222K | $248K | $254K | $254K | $263K | $270K | $259K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$100,373 | -$97,473 | -$95,373 | -$86,673 | -$84,573 | -$83,273 | -$77,973 | -$42,373 | -$31,573 | -$5,573 | -$165 | +$9,386 | +$16,402 | +$5,456 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -38.4% | -37.6% | -34.2% | -33.3% | -32.8% | -30.7% | -16.7% | -12.4% | -2.2% | -0.1% | +3.7% | +6.5% | +2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $223K | $209K | $197K | $228K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $310K | $320K | $333K | $292K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$223K to $310K
34.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$228K to $292K
24.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74014 · (Tract 304.6) | $251K | $270K | +7.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030510) | $251K | $282K | +12.3% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030407) | $265K | $295K | +11.1% | |
| Wagoner | $271K | $301K | +11.0% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030505) | $275K | $303K | +10.5% | |
| Broken Arrow | $237K | $257K | +8.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74014 · (Tract 304.6) | $251K | $270K | +7.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030604) | $173K | $210K | +21.6% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030509) | $320K | $377K | +17.9% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030605) | $214K | $248K | +15.9% | |
| Wagoner | $155K | $179K | +15.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030601) | $326K | $376K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74014 · (Tract 304.6) | $251K | $270K | $136K | |
| Coweta | $202K | $222K | $96K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030202) | $151K | $158K | $92K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030101) | $129K | $143K | $77K | |
| Tulsa | $118K | $135K | $70K | |
| Broken Arrow | $119K | $123K | $59K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Wagoner, OK · ZIP 74014 · Census Tract 40145030406 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$254K
Downside (P10)
$197K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$270K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$333K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $153K | $156K | $158K | $167K | $169K | $170K | $176K | $211K | $222K | $248K | $254K | $254K | $263K | $270K | $259K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$100,373 | -$97,473 | -$95,373 | -$86,673 | -$84,573 | -$83,273 | -$77,973 | -$42,373 | -$31,573 | -$5,573 | -$165 | +$9,386 | +$16,402 | +$5,456 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -38.4% | -37.6% | -34.2% | -33.3% | -32.8% | -30.7% | -16.7% | -12.4% | -2.2% | -0.1% | +3.7% | +6.5% | +2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $223K | $209K | $197K | $228K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $310K | $320K | $333K | $292K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$223K to $310K
34.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$228K to $292K
24.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74014 · (Tract 304.6) | $251K | $270K | +7.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030510) | $251K | $282K | +12.3% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030407) | $265K | $295K | +11.1% | |
| Wagoner | $271K | $301K | +11.0% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030505) | $275K | $303K | +10.5% | |
| Broken Arrow | $237K | $257K | +8.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74014 · (Tract 304.6) | $251K | $270K | +7.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030604) | $173K | $210K | +21.6% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030509) | $320K | $377K | +17.9% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030605) | $214K | $248K | +15.9% | |
| Wagoner | $155K | $179K | +15.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030601) | $326K | $376K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74014 · (Tract 304.6) | $251K | $270K | $136K | |
| Coweta | $202K | $222K | $96K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030202) | $151K | $158K | $92K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030101) | $129K | $143K | $77K | |
| Tulsa | $118K | $135K | $70K | |
| Broken Arrow | $119K | $123K | $59K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
