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Tulsa, OK · ZIP 74011 · Census Tract 40143007534 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$333K
Downside (P10)
$270K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$350K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$520K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $234K | $247K | $294K | $293K | $319K | $333K | $344K | $347K | $350K | $330K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$99,088 | -$85,788 | -$39,188 | -$39,688 | -$13,588 | +$10,777 | +$13,647 | +$17,569 | -$2,685 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -29.8% | -25.8% | -11.8% | -11.9% | -4.1% | +3.2% | +4.1% | +5.3% | -0.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $276K | $272K | $270K | $292K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $406K | $454K | $520K | $368K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$276K to $406K
37.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$292K to $368K
23.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa · Broken Arrow · (Tract 75.34) | $328K | $350K | +6.7% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007633) | $334K | $369K | +10.5% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007612) | $324K | $357K | +10.3% | |
| North Tulsa | $326K | $358K | +9.8% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007639) | $327K | $348K | +6.2% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 006709) | $325K | $324K | -0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa · Broken Arrow · (Tract 75.34) | $328K | $350K | +6.7% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007615) | $314K | $395K | +25.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001200) | $89K | $107K | +20.1% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 006712) | $526K | $617K | +17.4% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 003700) | $195K | $228K | +16.9% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 003300) | $351K | $409K | +16.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa · Broken Arrow · (Tract 75.34) | $328K | $350K | $250K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 005700) | $77K | $85K | $39K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007643) | $62K | $65K | $38K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001500) | $87K | $94K | $37K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001300) | $59K | $69K | $31K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 000500) | $69K | $74K | $28K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Tulsa, OK · ZIP 74011 · Census Tract 40143007534 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$333K
Downside (P10)
$270K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$350K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$520K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $234K | $247K | $294K | $293K | $319K | $333K | $344K | $347K | $350K | $330K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$99,088 | -$85,788 | -$39,188 | -$39,688 | -$13,588 | +$10,777 | +$13,647 | +$17,569 | -$2,685 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -29.8% | -25.8% | -11.8% | -11.9% | -4.1% | +3.2% | +4.1% | +5.3% | -0.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $276K | $272K | $270K | $292K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $406K | $454K | $520K | $368K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$276K to $406K
37.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$292K to $368K
23.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa · Broken Arrow · (Tract 75.34) | $328K | $350K | +6.7% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007633) | $334K | $369K | +10.5% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007612) | $324K | $357K | +10.3% | |
| North Tulsa | $326K | $358K | +9.8% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007639) | $327K | $348K | +6.2% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 006709) | $325K | $324K | -0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa · Broken Arrow · (Tract 75.34) | $328K | $350K | +6.7% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007615) | $314K | $395K | +25.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001200) | $89K | $107K | +20.1% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 006712) | $526K | $617K | +17.4% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 003700) | $195K | $228K | +16.9% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 003300) | $351K | $409K | +16.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa · Broken Arrow · (Tract 75.34) | $328K | $350K | $250K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 005700) | $77K | $85K | $39K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007643) | $62K | $65K | $38K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001500) | $87K | $94K | $37K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001300) | $59K | $69K | $31K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 000500) | $69K | $74K | $28K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
