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Tulsa, OK · ZIP 74012 · Census Tract 40143007510 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$197K
Downside (P10)
$172K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$210K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$283K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $114K | $117K | $126K | $130K | $136K | $136K | $140K | $155K | $181K | $190K | $197K | $198K | $200K | $210K |
| YoY Change | +3.0% | +7.2% | +3.6% | +4.5% | +0.4% | +2.6% | +10.8% | +16.6% | +5.0% | +3.8% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +5.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $168K | $168K | $172K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $242K | $265K | $283K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$168K to $242K
37.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$172K to $283K
52.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow | $194K | $210K | +8.2% | |
| Sand Springs | $196K | $218K | +11.3% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007511) | $198K | $220K | +11.1% | |
| Broken Arrow (Tract 007525) | $197K | $211K | +7.1% | |
| Broken Arrow (Tract 007415) | $196K | $209K | +6.8% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 005300) | $196K | $207K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow | $194K | $210K | +8.2% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007615) | $314K | $395K | +25.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001200) | $89K | $107K | +20.1% | |
| Broken Arrow | $247K | $291K | +18.1% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 006712) | $526K | $617K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow | $194K | $210K | $111K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 009101) | $55K | $60K | $33K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001300) | $59K | $69K | $31K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 000500) | $69K | $74K | $28K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 011300) | $52K | $55K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.