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Tulsa, OK · ZIP 74012 · Census Tract 40143007414 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$186K
Downside (P10)
$143K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$192K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$270K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $112K | $113K | $117K | $121K | $121K | $126K | $130K | $151K | $162K | $183K | $186K | $185K | $197K | $192K | $190K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$73,572 | -$72,672 | -$69,272 | -$65,172 | -$65,272 | -$60,172 | -$55,872 | -$34,572 | -$23,772 | -$3,272 | -$464 | +$10,917 | +$6,590 | +$3,972 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -39.1% | -37.3% | -35.1% | -35.1% | -32.4% | -30.1% | -18.6% | -12.8% | -1.8% | -0.2% | +5.9% | +3.5% | +2.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $161K | $152K | $143K | $170K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $232K | $255K | $270K | $217K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$161K to $232K
38.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$170K to $217K
25.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74012 · (Tract 74.14) | $188K | $192K | +2.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 004000) | $188K | $214K | +13.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 000900) | $184K | $207K | +12.1% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 005001) | $185K | $199K | +7.6% | |
| Broken Arrow (Tract 007507) | $189K | $203K | +7.4% | |
| Broken Arrow (Tract 007408) | $189K | $199K | +5.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74012 · (Tract 74.14) | $188K | $192K | +2.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007615) | $314K | $395K | +25.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001200) | $89K | $107K | +20.1% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 006712) | $526K | $617K | +17.4% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 003700) | $195K | $228K | +16.9% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 003300) | $351K | $409K | +16.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74012 · (Tract 74.14) | $188K | $192K | $127K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 005700) | $77K | $85K | $39K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007643) | $62K | $65K | $38K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001500) | $87K | $94K | $37K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001300) | $59K | $69K | $31K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 000500) | $69K | $74K | $28K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Tulsa, OK · ZIP 74012 · Census Tract 40143007414 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$186K
Downside (P10)
$143K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$192K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$270K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $112K | $113K | $117K | $121K | $121K | $126K | $130K | $151K | $162K | $183K | $186K | $185K | $197K | $192K | $190K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$73,572 | -$72,672 | -$69,272 | -$65,172 | -$65,272 | -$60,172 | -$55,872 | -$34,572 | -$23,772 | -$3,272 | -$464 | +$10,917 | +$6,590 | +$3,972 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -39.1% | -37.3% | -35.1% | -35.1% | -32.4% | -30.1% | -18.6% | -12.8% | -1.8% | -0.2% | +5.9% | +3.5% | +2.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $161K | $152K | $143K | $170K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $232K | $255K | $270K | $217K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$161K to $232K
38.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$170K to $217K
25.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74012 · (Tract 74.14) | $188K | $192K | +2.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 004000) | $188K | $214K | +13.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 000900) | $184K | $207K | +12.1% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 005001) | $185K | $199K | +7.6% | |
| Broken Arrow (Tract 007507) | $189K | $203K | +7.4% | |
| Broken Arrow (Tract 007408) | $189K | $199K | +5.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74012 · (Tract 74.14) | $188K | $192K | +2.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007615) | $314K | $395K | +25.6% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001200) | $89K | $107K | +20.1% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 006712) | $526K | $617K | +17.4% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 003700) | $195K | $228K | +16.9% | |
| Tulsa (Tract 003300) | $351K | $409K | +16.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Arrow · 74012 · (Tract 74.14) | $188K | $192K | $127K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 005700) | $77K | $85K | $39K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 007643) | $62K | $65K | $38K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001500) | $87K | $94K | $37K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 001300) | $59K | $69K | $31K | |
| Tulsa (Tract 000500) | $69K | $74K | $28K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
