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Payne, OK · ZIP 74085 · Census Tract 40119011200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$213K
Downside (P10)
$182K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$231K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$296K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $67K | $72K | $72K | $75K | $78K | $124K | $110K | $139K | $175K | $204K | $213K | $213K | $229K | $231K | $213K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$146,475 | -$140,775 | -$141,375 | -$138,375 | -$135,375 | -$89,275 | -$102,575 | -$73,775 | -$37,575 | -$8,775 | -$220 | +$16,272 | +$18,284 | -$449 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -68.8% | -66.1% | -66.4% | -65.0% | -63.6% | -41.9% | -48.2% | -34.6% | -17.6% | -4.1% | -0.1% | +7.6% | +8.6% | -0.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $190K | $190K | $182K | $190K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $259K | $276K | $296K | $238K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$190K to $259K
32.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$190K to $238K
22.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | $205K | $231K | +13.0% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 011101) | $219K | $247K | +13.0% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010201) | $217K | $233K | +7.5% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 011103) | $227K | $241K | +6.3% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010101) | $244K | $243K | -0.5% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010102) | $176K | $173K | -1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | $205K | $231K | +13.0% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010600) | $158K | $181K | +14.5% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010901) | $330K | $378K | +14.5% | |
| Cushing | $157K | $178K | +13.7% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 011101) | $219K | $247K | +13.0% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010202) | $322K | $362K | +12.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | $205K | $231K | $115K | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010800) | $170K | $185K | $95K | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010102) | $176K | $173K | $94K | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010700) | $139K | $153K | $86K | |
| Cushing (Tract 011400) | $157K | $178K | $72K | |
| Cushing (Tract 011301) | $121K | $129K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Payne, OK · ZIP 74085 · Census Tract 40119011200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$213K
Downside (P10)
$182K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$231K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$296K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $67K | $72K | $72K | $75K | $78K | $124K | $110K | $139K | $175K | $204K | $213K | $213K | $229K | $231K | $213K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$146,475 | -$140,775 | -$141,375 | -$138,375 | -$135,375 | -$89,275 | -$102,575 | -$73,775 | -$37,575 | -$8,775 | -$220 | +$16,272 | +$18,284 | -$449 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -68.8% | -66.1% | -66.4% | -65.0% | -63.6% | -41.9% | -48.2% | -34.6% | -17.6% | -4.1% | -0.1% | +7.6% | +8.6% | -0.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $190K | $190K | $182K | $190K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $259K | $276K | $296K | $238K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$190K to $259K
32.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$190K to $238K
22.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | $205K | $231K | +13.0% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 011101) | $219K | $247K | +13.0% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010201) | $217K | $233K | +7.5% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 011103) | $227K | $241K | +6.3% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010101) | $244K | $243K | -0.5% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010102) | $176K | $173K | -1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | $205K | $231K | +13.0% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010600) | $158K | $181K | +14.5% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010901) | $330K | $378K | +14.5% | |
| Cushing | $157K | $178K | +13.7% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 011101) | $219K | $247K | +13.0% | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010202) | $322K | $362K | +12.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | $205K | $231K | $115K | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010800) | $170K | $185K | $95K | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010102) | $176K | $173K | $94K | |
| Stillwater (Tract 010700) | $139K | $153K | $86K | |
| Cushing (Tract 011400) | $157K | $178K | $72K | |
| Cushing (Tract 011301) | $121K | $129K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
