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Garvin, OK · ZIP 73075 · Census Tract 40049681200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$180K
Downside (P10)
$158K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$189K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$221K
+23% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +23%. The model forecasts this with 82% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $107K | $107K | $111K | $110K | $116K | $127K | $125K | $159K | $172K | $176K | $180K | $184K | $186K | $189K |
| YoY Change | -0.6% | +3.8% | -1.0% | +5.4% | +9.9% | -1.9% | +28.0% | +7.7% | +2.4% | +2.4% | +2.3% | +0.9% | +1.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $162K | $162K | $158K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $201K | $220K | $221K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$162K to $201K
21.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$158K to $221K
33.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pauls Valley · 73075 · (Tract 6812) | $175K | $189K | +7.8% | |
| Elmore City | $144K | $164K | +14.2% | |
| Pauls Valley (Tract 681400) | $162K | $183K | +12.6% | |
| Maysville | $154K | $172K | +11.4% | |
| Stratford | $173K | $188K | +8.2% | |
| Pauls Valley (Tract 681500) | $144K | $152K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pauls Valley · 73075 · (Tract 6812) | $175K | $189K | +7.8% | |
| Elmore City | $144K | $164K | +14.2% | |
| Pauls Valley | $162K | $183K | +12.6% | |
| Maysville | $154K | $172K | +11.4% | |
| Stratford | $173K | $188K | +8.2% | |
| Lindsay | $230K | $248K | +8.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pauls Valley · 73075 · (Tract 6812) | $175K | $189K | $63K | |
| Elmore City | $144K | $164K | $93K | |
| Stratford | $173K | $188K | $89K | |
| Lindsay | $117K | $118K | $83K | |
| Pauls Valley (Tract 681500) | $144K | $152K | $78K | |
| Pauls Valley (Tract 681300) | $102K | $107K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.