County 40811, OK · Census Tract 40811720102 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$641K
Downside (P10)
$575K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$835K
+30% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.33M
+107% by 2030
Base case: +30% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +107%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 40811 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $641K | $733K | $726K | $762K | $835K |
| YoY Change | +14.4% | -0.9% | +4.9% | +9.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $609K | $550K | $549K | $575K | |
| Upside (P90) | $951K | $994K | $1.1M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$562K to $789K
35.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$575K to $1.33M
89.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 480002 | $195K | $272K | +39.7% |
| Tract 760007 | $191K | $270K | +41.6% |
| Tract 800103 | $96K | $132K | +38.0% |
| Tract 800006 | $92K | $136K | +47.3% |
| Tract 120100 | $80K | $112K | +40.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 800006 | $92K | $136K | +47.3% |
| Tract 760007 | $191K | $270K | +41.6% |
| Tract 120100 | $80K | $112K | +40.8% |
| Tract 480002 | $195K | $272K | +39.7% |
| Tract 680103 | $64K | $89K | +39.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080004 | $70K | $92K | $80K |
| Tract 680103 | $64K | $89K | $95K |
| Tract 120100 | $80K | $112K | $99K |
| Tract 800006 | $92K | $136K | $113K |
| Tract 800103 | $96K | $132K | $119K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources