What is the home price forecast for Parcel 40021977901 in Tahlequah?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $191,870 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.4%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 40021977901 in Tahlequah?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $191,870 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.4%.

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Parcel 40021977901 (Tahlequah) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 40021977901, Tahlequah Home Price Forecast

Cherokee, OK · ZIP 74464 · Census Tract 40021977901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$192K

Downside (P10)

$170K

-11% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$218K

+13% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$282K

+47% by 2030

Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$168K	$166K	$184K	$177K	$184K	$192K	$197K	$207K	$218K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$24,070	-$25,470	-$7,470	-$14,670	-$8,370		+$5,377	+$14,844	+$25,673
Growth % vs 2026	-12.5%	-13.3%	-3.9%	-7.6%	-4.4%		+2.8%	+7.7%	+13.4%
Downside (P10)							$161K	$170K	$170K
Upside (P90)							$244K	$259K	$282K

Forecast Confidence

72%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$161K to $244K

41.9% of median

Long-horizon band

$170K to $282K

51.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +13.4% · Spread: 52%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 40021977901, Tahlequah on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).