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Warren, OH · ZIP 45040 · Census Tract 39165031905 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$286K
Downside (P10)
$225K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$298K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$427K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $182K | $224K | $253K | $280K | $286K | $286K | $293K | $303K | $298K |
| YoY Change | +23.0% | +12.7% | +10.9% | +2.1% | -0.2% | +2.7% | +3.5% | -1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $261K | $243K | $225K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $362K | $392K | $427K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$261K to $362K
34.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$225K to $427K
67.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason · 45040 · (Tract 319.5) | $289K | $298K | +3.0% | |
| Mason | $288K | $317K | +9.9% | |
| Wayne | $276K | $305K | +10.7% | |
| Franklin | $297K | $310K | +4.2% | |
| Washington | $298K | $323K | +8.5% | |
| Deerfield | $303K | $341K | +12.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason · 45040 · (Tract 319.5) | $289K | $298K | +3.0% | |
| Deerfield | $330K | $389K | +17.7% | |
| Hamilton (Tract 032206) | $393K | $453K | +15.2% | |
| Clear Creek | $420K | $480K | +14.4% | |
| Hamilton (Tract 032205) | $327K | $371K | +13.6% | |
| Franklin | $189K | $214K | +13.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason · 45040 · (Tract 319.5) | $289K | $298K | $202K | |
| Franklin (Tract 032502) | $144K | $142K | $99K | |
| Franklin (Tract 030200) | $136K | $150K | $103K | |
| Franklin (Tract 032501) | $189K | $214K | $106K | |
| Franklin (Tract 030501) | $199K | $209K | $110K | |
| Franklin (Tract 030101) | $215K | $220K | $116K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.