What is the home price forecast for Tract 040003?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 040003 median home values at $329,784 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 18.0%.

How confident is the Tract 040003 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $284,983 (downside) to $566,513 (upside), with a spread of 72% of median.

What is the home price forecast for Tract 040003?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 040003 median home values at $329,784 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 18.0%.

How confident is the Tract 040003 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $284,983 (downside) to $566,513 (upside), with a spread of 72% of median.

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Tract 040003 Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Tract 040003 Home Price Forecast

Stark, OH · Census Tract 39151040003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$330K

Downside (P10)

$285K

-14% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$389K

+18% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$567K

+72% by 2030

Base case: +18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +72%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$330K	$377K	$373K	$378K	$389K
Growth $ vs 2026		+$46,823	+$43,149	+$48,559	+$59,258
Growth % vs 2026		+14.2%	+13.1%	+14.7%	+18.0%
Downside (P10)		$311K	$293K	$292K	$285K
Upside (P90)		$447K	$477K	$514K	$567K

Location

Tract 040003 on map

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Forecast Confidence

60%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$311K to $447K

36.0% of median

Long-horizon band

$285K to $567K

72.4% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +18.0% · Spread: 72%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 040003	$330K	$389K	+18.0%
Plain area	$321K	$367K	+14.3%
Jackson (Tract 711402)	$340K	$369K	+8.6%
Jackson (Tract 711411)	$322K	$348K	+7.8%
Jackson (Tract 711312)	$332K	$354K	+6.7%
Lake	$324K	$336K	+3.8%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 040003	$330K	$389K	$282K
Massillon (Tract 714100)	$114K	$112K	$28K
Massillon (Tract 714200)	$81K	$84K	$23K
Canton	$64K	$62K	$16K

Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).