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Lucas, OH · ZIP 43566 · Census Tract 39095008906 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$289K
Downside (P10)
$215K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$308K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$401K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $207K | $205K | $242K | $244K | $276K | $289K | $294K | $297K | $308K | $288K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$81,427 | -$83,627 | -$46,527 | -$44,727 | -$13,027 | +$5,591 | +$8,637 | +$19,633 | -$223 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.2% | -29.0% | -16.1% | -15.5% | -4.5% | +1.9% | +3.0% | +6.8% | -0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $242K | $231K | $215K | $253K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $366K | $396K | $401K | $324K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$242K to $366K
42.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$253K to $324K
24.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterville area | $283K | $308K | +8.8% | |
| Sylvania (Tract 009205) | $283K | $322K | +13.8% | |
| Sylvania (Tract 008302) | $289K | $320K | +10.6% | |
| Springfield | $288K | $317K | +10.2% | |
| Sylvania (Tract 008209) | $289K | $312K | +7.8% | |
| Harding area | $286K | $307K | +7.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterville area | $283K | $308K | +8.8% | |
| Toledo (Tract 005804) | $163K | $193K | +18.6% | |
| Toledo (Tract 006600) | $85K | $100K | +17.3% | |
| Toledo (Tract 007204) | $253K | $294K | +16.1% | |
| Toledo (Tract 004701) | $73K | $84K | +15.7% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lucas, OH · ZIP 43566 · Census Tract 39095008906 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$289K
Downside (P10)
$215K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$308K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$401K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $207K | $205K | $242K | $244K | $276K | $289K | $294K | $297K | $308K | $288K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$81,427 | -$83,627 | -$46,527 | -$44,727 | -$13,027 | +$5,591 | +$8,637 | +$19,633 | -$223 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.2% | -29.0% | -16.1% | -15.5% | -4.5% | +1.9% | +3.0% | +6.8% | -0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $242K | $231K | $215K | $253K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $366K | $396K | $401K | $324K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$242K to $366K
42.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$253K to $324K
24.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterville area | $283K | $308K | +8.8% | |
| Sylvania (Tract 009205) | $283K | $322K | +13.8% | |
| Sylvania (Tract 008302) | $289K | $320K | +10.6% | |
| Springfield | $288K | $317K | +10.2% | |
| Sylvania (Tract 008209) | $289K | $312K | +7.8% | |
| Harding area | $286K | $307K | +7.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterville area | $283K | $308K | +8.8% | |
| Toledo (Tract 005804) | $163K | $193K | +18.6% | |
| Toledo (Tract 006600) | $85K | $100K | +17.3% | |
| Toledo (Tract 007204) | $253K | $294K | +16.1% | |
| Toledo (Tract 004701) | $73K | $84K | +15.7% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
