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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Lucas, OH · ZIP 43606 · Census Tract 39095007700 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$197K
Downside (P10)
$168K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$205K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$267K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $121K | $122K | $129K | $128K | $130K | $133K | $137K | $163K | $182K | $191K | $197K | $198K | $200K | $205K | $199K |
| YoY Change | +0.6% | +5.3% | -0.5% | +1.5% | +2.7% | +2.9% | +19.0% | +11.4% | +5.2% | +3.2% | +0.4% | +1.2% | +2.3% | -2.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $164K | $165K | $168K | $176K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $245K | $258K | $267K | $223K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$164K to $245K
40.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$176K to $223K
23.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo · 43606 · (Tract 77) | $191K | $205K | +7.5% | |
| Toledo (Tract 010400) | $191K | $219K | +14.4% | |
| Toledo (Tract 007202) | $196K | $218K | +11.4% | |
| Maumee | $190K | $209K | +10.0% | |
| Toledo (Tract 007304) | $196K | $212K | +7.9% | |
| Oregon | $205K | $221K | +7.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo · 43606 · (Tract 77) | $191K | $205K | +7.5% | |
| Toledo (Tract 005804) | $163K | $193K | +18.6% | |
| Toledo (Tract 006600) | $85K | $100K | +17.3% | |
| Toledo (Tract 007204) | $253K | $294K | +16.1% | |
| Oregon | $272K | $316K | +16.0% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.