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Lorain, OH · ZIP 44074 · Census Tract 39093060100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$175K
Downside (P10)
$135K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$186K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$236K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $128K | $134K | $134K | $135K | $146K | $142K | $142K | $166K | $172K | $170K | $175K | $180K | $184K | $186K | $179K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$46,910 | -$41,610 | -$41,310 | -$40,610 | -$29,510 | -$32,910 | -$32,810 | -$9,310 | -$3,410 | -$5,010 | +$4,673 | +$8,808 | +$10,768 | +$4,278 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -26.8% | -23.7% | -23.6% | -23.2% | -16.8% | -18.8% | -18.7% | -5.3% | -1.9% | -2.9% | +2.7% | +5.0% | +6.1% | +2.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $153K | $144K | $135K | $159K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $218K | $234K | $236K | $198K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$153K to $218K
36.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$159K to $198K
21.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Russia area | $173K | $186K | +7.5% | |
| Sheffield Lake | $182K | $199K | +9.4% | |
| Lorain | $184K | $198K | +8.2% | |
| Elyria | $172K | $185K | +7.5% | |
| Elyria area | $174K | $181K | +3.8% | |
| Amherst area | $184K | $189K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Russia area | $173K | $186K | +7.5% | |
| Elyria (Tract 071201) | $129K | $154K | +19.4% | |
| Lorain (Tract 022100) | $138K | $163K | +18.4% | |
| Elyria (Tract 070400) | $126K | $150K | +18.3% | |
| North Ridgeville | $326K | $381K | +16.8% | |
| Lorain (Tract 023500) | $125K | $145K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Russia area | $173K | $186K | $102K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023300) | $93K | $98K | $51K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023100) | $86K | $92K | $51K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023200) | $69K | $78K | $49K | |
| Sheffield area | $102K | $115K | $46K | |
| Lorain (Tract 097300) | $82K | $83K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lorain, OH · ZIP 44074 · Census Tract 39093060100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$175K
Downside (P10)
$135K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$186K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$236K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $128K | $134K | $134K | $135K | $146K | $142K | $142K | $166K | $172K | $170K | $175K | $180K | $184K | $186K | $179K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$46,910 | -$41,610 | -$41,310 | -$40,610 | -$29,510 | -$32,910 | -$32,810 | -$9,310 | -$3,410 | -$5,010 | +$4,673 | +$8,808 | +$10,768 | +$4,278 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -26.8% | -23.7% | -23.6% | -23.2% | -16.8% | -18.8% | -18.7% | -5.3% | -1.9% | -2.9% | +2.7% | +5.0% | +6.1% | +2.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $153K | $144K | $135K | $159K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $218K | $234K | $236K | $198K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$153K to $218K
36.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$159K to $198K
21.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Russia area | $173K | $186K | +7.5% | |
| Sheffield Lake | $182K | $199K | +9.4% | |
| Lorain | $184K | $198K | +8.2% | |
| Elyria | $172K | $185K | +7.5% | |
| Elyria area | $174K | $181K | +3.8% | |
| Amherst area | $184K | $189K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Russia area | $173K | $186K | +7.5% | |
| Elyria (Tract 071201) | $129K | $154K | +19.4% | |
| Lorain (Tract 022100) | $138K | $163K | +18.4% | |
| Elyria (Tract 070400) | $126K | $150K | +18.3% | |
| North Ridgeville | $326K | $381K | +16.8% | |
| Lorain (Tract 023500) | $125K | $145K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Russia area | $173K | $186K | $102K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023300) | $93K | $98K | $51K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023100) | $86K | $92K | $51K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023200) | $69K | $78K | $49K | |
| Sheffield area | $102K | $115K | $46K | |
| Lorain (Tract 097300) | $82K | $83K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
